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Wimbledon: Women’s Predictions, Day One

By Clinton Trueman

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Jul 1, 2014; London, United Kingdom; Maria Sharapova (RUS) in action during her match against Angelique Kerber (GER) on day eight of the 2014 Wimbledon Championships at the All England Lawn and Tennis Club. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Wimbledon 2015: Women’s Match Analyses and Predictions for Day One

The grass is crisp and green, the stars of tennis are donning their whites and strawberries are being cascaded with cream. This can only mean that the most important fortnight in tennis is less than 24 hours away. And with the order of play now available, day one of Wimbledon 2015 promises to provide a bunch of exciting match-ups. Here’s a look at some of today’s top matches:

Top Matches to Watch

Maria Sharapova [4] vs. Johanna Konta

It’s no surprise that Serena’s been bumped to Court 1 to make room for this tantalising matchup. On paper it may seem straightforward for the Russian: former Wimbledon champ versus a plucky but inexperienced Brit. However, Konta’s had a fantastic few weeks on the grass, having made two WTA quarterfinals and pushed some of the world’s best to three sets. Meanwhile, Sharapova is coming back from a disappointing Roland Garros, falling ill and crashing out to Lucie Safarova in the round of 16. Although she hasn’t played since then, it’s difficult to see someone as tenacious as Sharapova letting a little rust affect her.

Playing in front of her home crowd will surely bolster Konta’s belief that she can take on the world’s best, but she probably lacks the experience and weapons to defeat Sharapova. It may not be pretty, but count on Sharapova to take this one.

Prediction: Sharapova in 2 (but don’t be surprised if it goes to 3).

Serena Williams [1] vs. Margarita Gasparyan

One of the most prominent storylines during this year’s Wimbledon has been whether Serena can match her heroics from the 2002-3 season and complete the ‘Serena Slam’: a feat she will accomplish if she claims this year’s Wimbledon crown. She has to get through her first round match, though. Not many will recognise Gasparyan as she walks out onto court today: her only other Grand Slam appearance came at Roland Garros earlier this year, where she fell easily to Ana Konjuh.

Although Gasparyan’s young and believes that she can take out the number 1, it’s hard to see her taking any more than a few games against a determined Serena. It will be a great learning experience for the youngster, but will it be a great match? Probably not.

Prediction: Serena in 2.

Alison Riske vs. Lucie Safarova [6]

Fresh off her maiden grand slam final at the French, Safarova enters this year’s Wimbledon with a newly minted top ten ranking and a whole lot of confidence. The tennis gods have not been kind to last year’s semifinalist however, giving her a first round match against grass court specialist Riske. Riske loves to work the grass and and is rock solid on the surface. She’s also had a solid few weeks in the lead up to this event, making the semifinal in Nottingham before some disappointing losses to Kristina Mladenovic and Genie Bouchard. It’s certainly been better than Safarova’s grass court season thus far: she’s lost her only match to a revived Dominika Cibulkova.

This match will essentially come down to how well Safarova is playing. A somewhat erratic player, she has the ability to make this a short affair. But, she also has the ability to spray balls outside the lines and gift the win to Riske. Their previous matchup in Madrid this year would suggest that Safarova has this match covered, although that was played on clay (arguably Riske’s worst surface). There’s certainly upset potential here, but count on the Czech’s improved Grand Slam performances of late to give her the confidence to get through (relatively) unscathed.

Prediction: Safarova in 3.

Belinda Bencic [30] vs. Tsvetana Pironkova

No, it’s not top ten player Ivanovic, or former champ Venus who you should be looking out for on day one, but this potential stunner on the outside courts. So what makes this matchup so exciting? On one hand, there’s Pironkova. Sure, her forehand is borderline disgraceful when it’s not working, but her backhand is stunning and she sure can play on the grass. She played the role of Venus Williams’ worst nightmare between 2010-2011, easily taking out the American at Wimbledon both years on the road to the semifinals and quarterfinals, respectively. It’s difficult to pin down what exactly makes Pironkova so lethal on the grass. She seems so at ease on the surface, allowing herself to play instinctive and intelligent tennis.

Then we have Bencic who is coming off her best week on tour, having been crowned champion in Eastbourne just a few days ago. Her performances throughout the week were aggressive and consistent, and gave credence to the claims that she’s the next Martina Hingis of the women’s tour. It would be easy to assume that Bencic would be fatigued coming off her big win, but she is a sprightly 18 years of age and should be fresh enough to compete here.

This match is really a toss-up. If Bencic plays like she did in Eastbourne she should take this match. Pironkova, though, will provide a reasonable test, especially if Bencic is not at her best. There will be some fireworks, but expect the expressive Swiss teen to eke past the Bulgarian in their first encounter.

Prediction: Bencic in 3.

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Madison Brengle vs. Venus Williams [16]

Taking on the resurgent, young American, Venus will be hoping to extend her stay on the path to a potential mouth-watering fourth round encounter with sister Serena. If she’s healthy and fresh, Venus shouldn’t have any trouble here. Brengle’s a great player but really doesn’t have the weapons to take out the five-time Wimbledon champion on grass. Don’t settle in if you’re watching this one.

Prediction: Venus in 2.

Yi-Fan Xu vs. Ana Ivanovic [7]

Ivanovic had a fantastic few weeks in Paris, matching her solid play with a favourable draw to make the semifinals of a grand slam for the first time since her title in 2008. And how did she follow that? A second round loss to Michelle Larcher de Brito in Birmingham (where she was the defending champion). The loss certainly didn’t act as a strong omen for Ivanovic’s Wimbledon campaign, where the low balls seem to cause trouble for her. Taking on a grand slam debutante in the first round is a gift for Ivanovic. The left hander from China doesn’t seem to have the experience in singles or doubles to take down a top ten player. Hopefully Ivanovic can use the match to give herself the playtime she missed out on in Eastbourne before she ventures deeper into the draw.

Prediction: Ivanovic in 2.

Anett Kontaveit vs. Victoria Azarenka [23]

Azarenka’s had a pretty rough year. She’s been playing top five tennis and still finds herself outside the top 20. Look for her to rectify that at Wimbledon. Her first few rounds are somewhat a cakewalk (as long as that serve is working), including this first round matchup. The young Estonian can sure play, but don’t expect her to put up too much of a fight.

Prediction: Azarenka in 2.

Danka Kovinic vs. Samantha Stosur [22]

Despite a colossal serve, Stosur has had extremely limited success on the grass lawns of Wimbledon. Her major weapons, a fantastic kick serve and huge topspin forehand, just aren’t as potent on the grass as they are on clay and hard courts. Two years ago, she had some success employing a serve-and-volley game style, losing to eventual finalist Sabine Lisicki in 3. Although the Montenegrin has had a good year (especially in Charleston), if Stosur replicates this game she should safely book her place in the second round.

Prediction: Stosur in 2.

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