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Wimbledon: Women’s Predictions, Day Four

By Clinton Trueman

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Jun 30, 2014; London, United Kingdom; Sabine Lisicki (GER) in action during her match against Ana Ivanovic (SRB) on day seven of the 2014 Wimbledon Championships at the All England Lawn and Tennis Club. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Wimbledon 2015: Women’s Match Analyses and Predictions for Day Four

With day four of Wimbledon 2015 almost underway, here’s a look at the top women’s matches for day four:

Top Matches to Watch

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova vs. Angelique Kerber [10]

Kerber was phenomenal in her first round match, playing intelligent and meticulous tennis on her way to an ever-so-sweet double bagel. Kerber is now my pick to disrupt the probable Williams-Kvitova final and potentially compete for the title. If she has any chance to do that she will first have to get through a somewhat tricky encounter with the frequently unfocused Russian Pavlyuchenkova.

Pavs is a fantastic player … when she’s zoned in to what she’s doing. After a breakout year in 2011, during which she reached a career high ranking of no. 13, she’s struggled to repeatedly play her best game. This is best demonstrated through her head to head record with Kerber, which currently stands at 3-3. Pavs has beaten Kerber on multiple occasions, but in their last encounter at the Davis Cup this year Kerber won 6-1, 6-0. Although the match was played on clay, the scoreline was just a little too decisive to suggest that Pavs is in the form to present any danger to the German.

Look for Kerber to extend her stay with a clean, methodical performance.

Prediction: Kerber in 2.

Agnieszka Radwanska [13] vs. Ajla Tomljanovic

After 6 months of uninspired, error-filled tennis, it seems that Aga is back to playing her signature precise and creative game. She came through the first round with a solid win over a potentially tricky opponent in Lucie Hradecka. She played a clean match, keeping the unforced errors (an unfortunate feature of her game this year) to a minimum.

In the second round she will face the young Australian who took her out at the French Open last year. And while Tomljanovic would be a threat to Radwanska in a clay court match, this appears to be a fairly easy win for the Pole. Her 1-3 win record in the grass court tournaments leading up to Wimbledon suggest that Tomljanovic is yet to find her feet on the grass court. On the other hand, her performance in the first round was good enough to take out an inconsistent Klara Koukalova. Although she has the thunderous groundstrokes and serve to hit her way into the third round, her lack of grass court credentials suggest that she won’t pose much of a danger to Aga’s variety and superior grass court game.

Prediction: Radwanska in 2.

Christina McHale vs. Sabine Lisicki [18]

Another Wimbledon, another chance for Lisicki to claim some big scalps and compete for the most illustrious title in tennis. Lisicki played well in her first round match on the outside courts. She hit a reasonable number of winners and didn’t spray too many errors. Her second round match will see her return to the big stage that she’s fostered a love affair with throughout the last few years. It says a lot that the defending champion and number 2 seed Kvitova has been bumped to the No. 1 Court to make room on Centre Court for this match. Expect Lisicki to play her best here.

Her opponent today will be the young American McHale. Solid and creative at best, but blasé and uninspired at worst, McHale is not the sort of player who can overwhelm Lisicki or hit her off the court. She’s a stable player, but unless Lisicki continuously misses her shots today, McHale will be departing from Wimbledon village soon.

Prediction: Lisicki in 2.

Kurumi Nara vs. Petra Kvitova [2]

After a brilliant (and heavily condensed) first round match, Kvitova now faces the diminutive yet feisty Nara in the second round. The defending champion was in impeccable form against Bertens on Tuesday, hitting winner after winner and attenuating the number of unforced errors. The most impressive stat, though, concerned her serving: she won all but one point on serve, with the one point she lost being a double fault. If she can remain that dominant on serve throughout the tournament, she’ll have her hands on the Venus Rosewater dish in no time.

Her next opponent (next victim?) lacks height but compensates by playing patient, defensive points that are punctuated with punishing groundstrokes and volleys. Kvitova and Nara will be meeting for the first time. However, Nara’s game is very similar in style to women like Peng Shuai and Zarina Diyas: players Kvitova has had no trouble with in the past.

The match really comes down to the fact that Nara likely won’t be able to play her game against the raw power of Kvitova. If Kvitova serves and plays even nearly as well as she did on Tuesday, expect a short match.

Prediction: Kvitova in 2.

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Garbine Muguruza [20] vs. Mirjana Lucic-Baroni

In today’s battle of the big hitters, the strapping Spaniard Muguruza will take on the rejuvenated Croat Lucic-Baroni. Both are erratic. Both are world beaters when on their game. And they both have a win in grand slam tennis against each other (Muguruza’s came in Paris, while Lucic-Baroni’s came in New York). Of their previous matches, Lucic-Baroni’s win came on the surface most similar to the grass courts of Wimbledon. She also seems to love the surface here, while Muguruza is still trying to adapt her game to the grass. It really could go either way, but I’m going with the upset.

Prediction: Lucic-Baroni in 3.

Ekaterina Makarova [8] vs. Magdalena Rybarikova

Both Makarova and Rybarikova played fine enough first matches that featured just a few too many unforced errors. Rybarikova, the towering Slovak, has the power and serve to beat any player on any given day (see: New Haven Open last year), but is facing an ostensibly perpetual struggle to implement her A-game consistently. This is a struggle that Makarova has beaten, with her consistently strong game finding her well within the top ten. Although she’s suffered a bit of a slump since making the semifinals at the Australian Open this year, Makarova should be too consistent for Rybarikova.

Prediction: Makarova in 2. 

Jelena Jankovic [28] vs. Evgeniya Rodina

Hands up if you thought that Jankovic’s best grand slam performance this year would be on the grass courts of Wimbledon! The Serb’s marathon match against Elena Vesnina marked her first win in a slam this year, just a few weeks after a surprising and impressive semifinal appearance in s’Hertogenbosch. The key to her increased grass court success has been increased aggression. Realising that her counterpunching style of play won’t take her far on grass, Jankovic has become more inclined to serve and hit with more pace and take it upon herself to hit more winners. She’ll next face Rodina, who came through against home favourite Laura Robson in straight sets. Jankovic will likely be the aggressor in this match against the often too-passive Rodina. The Russian’s game really isn’t made for grass courts and, against the improved Jankovic grass court game, won’t see her any further into the tournament.

Prediction: Jankovic in 2.

Caroline Wozniacki [5] vs. Denisa Allertova

Both Wozniacki and Allertova will be looking to make it to the third round of a grand slam for the first time this year. After falling down an early break Wozniacki cruised through her first round match. Allertova also had a great win over the most emotionally volatile player on the women’s tour, Katerina Siniakova (Allertova’s victory was slightly disappointing as Siniakova vs Wozniacki would have been essential viewing). Regardless, Allertova has the booming groundstrokes to push Wozniacki, but the fact that’s she never made it beyond the round of 64 at a grand slam may hurt her. Look for the Dane to finally make it to the third round of a slam this year.

Prediction: Wozniacki in 2.

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