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Wimbledon: Women’s Predictions, Day Six

By Clinton Trueman

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Jul 2, 2015;London, United Kingdom; Sabine Lisicki (GER) in action during her match against Christina McHale (USA) on day four of The Championships Wimbledon at the AELTC. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

Wimbledon 2015: Women’s Match Analyses and Predictions for Day Six

With the first week of Wimbledon 2015 coming to a close, the best players on the women’s tour are meeting and providing some fantastic displays of tennis (any claim otherwise can be quickly dispelled by Williams vs. Watson yesterday). Here’s a look at today’s matches:

Top Matches to Watch

Caroline Wozniacki [5] vs. Camila Giorgi [31]

Is there any worth in trying to predict what will happen when Camila Giorgi’s on court? The young Italian doesn’t just hit the ball; she wallops it. No matter where she is on the court or what shot she’s playing, Giorgi is always seeking to place pressure on her opponents by repeatedly hitting deep, fast balls. In similar fashion, she doesn’t hit second serves, instead blasting first serves on both attempts. Her game is stunning when it’s working, but cringeworthy when it’s not: in her semifinal appearance in s’Hertogenbosch last month (a tournament she would go on to win), Giorgi hit 23 double faults. That’s nearly a set’s worth of service errors! Her inconsistent play has seen her reach the third round after 2, albeit tight, straight sets matches.

Her opponent in the third round will be a woman who has had trouble with big hitters in the slams this year. Wozniacki hasn’t been all that impressive this week. Her last match against big hitting Czech Denisa Allertova seemed to be smooth sailing with the Dane up 6-1, 5-1. However, when Allertova began putting the shots into the court, she was able to penetrate the Wozniacki defence, pushing the match to a 6-1, 7-6 victory for Wozniacki.

If Giorgi is able to keep her ball in the court, she should be able to hit through Wozniacki, especially on grass. The Italian lost their only meeting on grass, but leads their head to head 2-1, including a victory in their last meeting in New Haven. Giorgi is also a much more consistent player this year, having made two tournament finals, including a win in s’Hertogenbosch on grass. Expect the youngster’s aggressive game to be too much for Wozniacki on the super fast grass courts.

Prediction: Giorgi in 3.

Timea Bacsinszky [15] vs. Sabine Lisicki [18]

Someone needs to get the book on shot selection and make Lisicki read it. Twice. Lisicki has access to a tapestry of different shots in her game, which is great until she’s presented with a ball that offers too many options. This was the issue with Lisicki on Thursday, as she found herself just picking the wrong shot at the wrong time on too many occasions. She was able to reign in her game after surviving a tight second set, but she won’t be able to play such loose tennis against her next opponent.

Timea Bacsinszky, the future top ten player, has been absolutely outstanding this year, winning two titles and reaching a maiden grand slam semifinal. She’s brought her excellent form to Wimbledon, absolutely thrashing Silvia Soler-Espinosa in the second round. The Swiss hit an astonishing 36 winners alongside a minimal collection of errors.

It’s difficult to tell how Lisicki will play in this match. She hasn’t shown the brilliant form this week that took her to a Wimbledon final two years ago, but she’s never been one for consistency. However, Bacsinszky is an excellent returner and has no issues with big hitters who strike with a lot of pace (there’s a reason she’s 2-0 against Kvitova this year). Unless Lisicki can improve upon her previous performances dramatically, she’ll be exiting Wimbledon in her earliest departure since 2008.

Prediction: Bacsinszky in 3.

Garbine Muguruza [20] vs. Angelique Kerber [10]

Muguruza and Kerber will be meeting in the third round for the second consecutive grand slam. The bulky Spaniard took the win last month in Paris, coming back from a weak first set to cruise into the next round. However, that did take place on clay courts: arguably Muguruza’s best surface and Kerber’s worst. Meanwhile the grass is where Kerber really shines, while Muguruza is still struggling to find her game on the surface. Kerber has also taken a win against Muguruza earlier this year in Australia.

After an outstanding first match, Kerber survived a performance by Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova that made tennis fans, myself included, wonder how she isn’t in the top 20. Despite a few shaky service games, Kerber was able to get through a tight first set. She then cruised through the second set, which was a much simpler affair due to Pavs’ level dropping after the letdown of losing the first set. Pavs’ near-perfect first set suggests that it will take a lot to take down Kerber in this year’s championships.

Meanwhile, Muguruza came through a very tricky second round encounter against towering Croat Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. While the Spaniard still seems a little unsettled on the grass court, she’s shown that she is still capable of delivering some strong performances on the surface.

However, it likely won’t be enough to take out Kerber in this match. Kerber simply loves absorbing pace on this surface (which Muguruza provides in spades) and redirecting it towards her opponent. Her defensive skills are also among the best in the game. If Muguruza hits a barrage of winners, she could push this to three. But expect Kerber to avenge her loss in Paris today.

Prediction: Kerber in 2 (3 if Muguruza’s in good form).

Jelena Jankovic [28] vs. Petra Kvitova [2]

For a player in her 30s, Jankovic sure has fantastic stamina! The Serbian has come through two incredibly tight three set matches on the path to her third round meeting with the defending champion. While a strong performance from Jankovic saw her survive the second round against Evgeniya Rodina, it really should have been a simpler match. Unfortunately, Jankovic is just hitting a few too many unforced errors at the moment.

If this continues into the third round, she won’t stand a chance at defeating possibly the most in-form player thus far at Wimbledon (although Kerber and Venus may argue otherwise). Kvitova seems simply unbeatable at this point, winning her first two matches 6-1, 6-0 and 6-2, 6-0. Her serving performance wasn’t as strong in her second round match as it was in her first, but her service, along with every other facet of her game, was outstanding.

At her best, Jankovic was able to defeat Kvitova fairly easily, with her sensational counterpunching skills frustrating Kvitova into hitting error after error. However, Jankovic hasn’t been the same player as she was throughout 2013-14. As suggested by Kvitova’s straight sets victories over Jankovic in Doha and Rome, the Serbian just isn’t playing well enough to take down Kvitova, especially at Wimbledon.

Prediction: Kvitova in 2.

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The Best of the Rest

Agnieszka Radwanska [13] vs. Casey Dellacqua

Dellacqua had a fantastic win in the second round against 17th seed Elina Svitolina. After falling 0-3 following a series of nonstop errors (14 in 3 games!), Dellacqua refocused her shots and hit bruising winners through Svitolina’s defence. Radwanska is also coming off a fantastic victory, demolishing her 2014 French Open conqueror 6-0, 6-2. And that scoreline may be mirrored here. Dellacqua has always had trouble with the stability of the Radwanska game. The Australian has a tendency to play either very hot or cold patches of play. The latter usually occurs when Dellacqua is made to play too many balls, which make her flustered and see her miss easy put-aways. Their last match was in the second round here last year, where Radwanska prevailed 6-4, 6-0.

If Dellacqua has any hope of progressing to the fourth round she needs to ensure that she dictates play from the outset, although she can afford to hit with larger margins as Radwanska will not hit her off the court. However, if the Pole gets out to an early lead and takes the first set, the match is over. The likeliest scenario is that, like their previous encounters, Radwanska will make Dellacqua play too many balls and defeat her unnerved opponent in straight sets.

Prediction: Radwanska in 2.

Tatjana Maria vs. Madison Keys [21]

Firstly, can we just acknowledge what a solid year the German veteran Maria is having. Coming off a few good wins throughout the year, including a straight sets victory over Genie Bouchard in Miami, she’s now into the round of 32 of Wimbledon. However, her run is likely to end here against young American Keys. Keys’ section of the draw has been absolute carnage and she now has a fantastic opportunity to make the quarterfinals, and perhaps even improve upon her semifinal showing in Melbourne this year. The Keys game is unapologetically massive: her groundstrokes and serve wouldn’t be out of place in the men’s game. Although she still hasn’t found the ability the reign in her weapons and clean up her game, she should have no trouble here.

Prediction: Keys in 2.

Kristyna Pliskova vs. Monica Niculescu

If we had been told that a Pliskova would make the third round of Wimbledon, the odds would have been on Kristyna’s sister Karolina. Likewise, if we had been told that a diminutive Romanian would do the same, most would have put their money on Simona Halep. However, these two surprise packages have worked their way through what was a stacked section of the draw to reach the round of 32 at Wimbledon for the first time.

Kristyna hasn’t experienced nearly as much success as her sister, but she’s used her big serve to match Karolina’s best grand slam performance. Her serve and groundstrokes are perfectly suited to the surface, and served her well in her second round victory of Svetlana Kuznetsova.

However, the likely victor in this encounter is the scrappy Romanian. Possibly one of the most entertaining players on tour, Niculescu’s slice forehand is fantastic at destabilising her opponents on the grass, and her defensive skills allow her to track down the larger groundstrokes of her more aggressive opponents, like Pliskova. She’ll be better equipped to deal with the pressure of going deep into the Wimbledon draw, having reached the fourth round of the US Open in 2011. She’s also in good form, having reached a grass tournament final last month in Nottingham. Expect her pesky game and experience to disconcert Pliskova on the way to the fourth round.

Just a sidenote: How fantastic would it be to see Kristyna, who has been stuck in the shadow of sister Karolina for a while now, to be the first of the Pliskova sisters to reach the second week of a grand slam?

Prediction: Niculescu in 3

Magdalena Rybarikova vs. Olga Govortsova

Rybarikova was phenomenal in the second round, where she took out eighth seed Ekaterina Makarova. Her winners count was off the charts, which was particularly impressive considering her error count stood in the single digits. Can she take this form into the third round? It’s impossible to tell with Rybarikova, who can beat anyone on her best days and lose to anyone on her worst.

Although she’s been on the tour for a while, I haven’t seen much of Govortsova. I know that she likes to take a whack at the ball and that her height gives her a great serve.

Both will be venturing into new territory as they attempt to reach the second week of a grand slam for the first time. It remains to be seen who will be able to deal with the pressure of this situation. However, Rybarikova has been stunning this week and defeated Govortsova in their only previous meeting (last year in Monterrey), so I’m going with the Slovak.

Prediction: Rybarikova in 2.

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