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US Open: Women’s Final Prediction

By Jake Fletcher

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US Open: Pennetta vs Vinci! You’re joking, right?

The women’s final has been decided at the US Open. Flavia Pennetta will play Roberta Vinci! No, it is not a misprint. I repeat, either Flavia Pennetta or Roberta Vinci will be the 2015 US Open champion! I defy anyone to have predicted that!

Here’s a look at the upcoming final and who I predict will win the title.

(Rank/Seed)

(26/26) Flavia Pennetta vs (43/-) Roberta Vinci

Pennetta is into her first final of the season after routing (2/2) Simona Halep 61 63 in the semi finals. The 33 year old Italian appeared nerveless, pulling Halep around the court with angles and drop shots. Despite trailing 1-3 in the second set, Pennetta hit a purple patch, winning fifteen successive points at one stage. It seemed as if she couldn’t miss no matter what she tried, her groundstrokes bludgeoning their way through Halep’s defences. Though Pennetta played great, Halep was admittedly flat and uninspired. She seemed to have left her best behind her in the quarter finals against Azarenka and made a ton of uncharacteristic unforced errors. The Romanian really had no idea how to go about the match and not for the first time this year, lacked fight in the closing stages. Given what would transpire later in the day, Halep will no doubt feel she’s let a golden opportunity pass her by.

That upset would ultimately prove to be a tremor though as the real earthquake was about to hit!

Vinci, the 32 year old Italian who had never been in a Grand Slam semi final before or taken a set off of (1/1) Serena Williams in four meetings, defeated the American 26 64 64! In what has to be regarded as the biggest upset in the Open Era, Vinci denied Williams the chance of a historic calendar year Grand Slam at the penultimate hurdle. After the first set and a half, it looked as if Vinci was just putting in a good showing for herself but then everything changed. Her slices, volleys and lobs unsettled Williams, who became increasingly anxious and erratic. By the third set, the pressure was telling on Williams as she pleaded with herself and the crowd. Vinci was unfazed and continued to attack the net and make Williams play the extra shot. In the end, she closed the match out to love, hitting a terrific half volley winner on her first match point.

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To put the upset into context, Williams had won 33 straight matches in Grand Slams, stretching back to Wimbledon 2014. She had won her last 26 matches at the US Open, stretching back to 2011. During the Open Era, no player outside of the top 30 had ever beaten a number one in a Grand Slam event beyond the 4th round. I suppose only Martina Navratilova knows how Williams is feeling, considering she had her ‘Grand Slam’ bid spoiled two matches shy in 1984, when Helena Sukova stunned her in the Australian Open semi finals (back then the Australian Open was held at the end of the year).

So, the US Open will be the first Grand Slam event to feature two Italians in the final. No Italian had even reached the final at the US Open before this year. Now, one will be guaranteed to join Francesca Schiavone as only the second Italian woman to win a singles Grand Slam tournament. Whoever wins will be the lowest ranked champion in the events history, aside from unranked Kim Clijsters in 2009. Pennetta is bidding to become the lowest seed to win the event, whilst Vinci will become only the second un-seeded champion here behind Kim Clijsters. As if that wasn’t enough, either woman will be the oldest first time Grand Slam champion in the Open Era, whilst Pennetta will have had the longest wait for a maiden slam of anyone in the Open Era.

Contrary to popular belief, Pennetta and Vinci haven’t just crawled out of the woodwork. Pennetta was the first Italian to crack the top 10 in 2009 and has won 10 of the 24 finals she contested, including a huge win in Indian Wells last year. She was also the first Italian, male or female to rank number one in doubles and won the 2011 Australian Open alongside Gisela Dulko.

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Vinci has been ranked as highly as 11 in the past and has won 9 of the 13 finals she’s contested, though none were even at the Premier level. She’s played one final this year already, losing to Karin Knapp in Nuremburg. Like Pennetta, she’s a former number one in doubles and has won five Slams alongside compatriot, Sara Errani. Together, they’ve won a career Grand Slam of all four events.

Pennetta has a narrow 5-4 lead over Vinci in their head to head. Incidentally, their last meeting came at this very event in 2013, when Pennetta won 64 61 in the quarter finals. The two have never played in a final before and one can only imagine the emotions the two will be feeling both building up to and during the final.

Theoretically, Pennetta should win this match. There is no doubt that she is the player with more big match wins in her singles career and she certainly has the bigger game. However, Vinci is level headed and will come in on a wave of confidence.

Who will handle the occasion better? The way this final has been set up reminds me of Wimbledon 2013, when Marion Bartoli took advantage of a slew of upsets to take home the title unexpectedly against Sabine Lisicki. Simply because of her hard court resume and her ability to hit easier winners, I have to go with Flavia Pennetta to lift the title and return to the top 10 in the process.

US Open: Women’s Final Prediction- Flavia Pennetta

Next: US Open: Women's Semi Final Predictions

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