Novak Djokovic: iron grip over ATP Tour to continue through Wimbledon

Novak Djokovic won a record 7th Australian Open title and 15th Grand Slam, moving past Pete Sampras and into 3rd on the all-time list.

Ahead of Novak Djokovic, are another two all-time greats in Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer, hence showing why we are all privileged to be witnessing this incredible era of tennis.

Djokovic was in peak form in the final, thrashing Nadal in three utterly dominant sets with the great Spaniard not able to lay a finger on the Djokovic-serve. It was a humbling defeat for Rafa with the Spaniard coming into the final without dropping a set. He was a favorite in the eyes of many an expert. Djokovic’s performance in that light, is almost scary, with many people claiming it is arguably the best he has ever played. 

Djokovic enters into the American summer hard court season as the firm favorite to clinch the sunshine double for a fifth time in his career (his 4 wins were in 2011 and then 2014-16). He has almost 11,000 points heading into the next part of the season, almost 2,500 points clear of his nearest rival, Nadal. Djokovic and Nadal both have virtually nothing to defend until the Monte Carlo Masters in April and are the prime favorites to win at Indian Wells and Miami.

Djokovic, in particular, has always liked the conditions there and has been very successful. It seems like a no-brainer to say that he will win the sunshine double and strengthen his position as the best player on the planet.

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Yet, things are not all that rosy. A closer look at Djokovic’s performance so far shows he has struggled against Next-Gen players. Denis Shapovalov managed to take a set off him despite not playing nearly as good as he can play. Danill Medvedev also took a set off him in a match when Novak complained of a bad back.

Until the French Open in mid May, Djokovic has to go through best of three set matches and he has looked particularly vulnerable in those types of matches since Paris last year. His loss to Roberto Bautista Agut in Doha this year also showed that he will have off-days and if the opponent is strong enough, they can outlast him and even beat him.

That being said, Djokovic is still the overwhelming favorite to do well in all the tournaments and on all the surfaces. The fact that he has nothing to defend until Wimbledon is both a positive and a negative. The positive is that he can stretch his lead over the others with good performances in these tournaments, especially with Nadal having to defend almost 5000 points in the clay season.

Latest news suggest that Federer is thinking of playing the clay this season and he has nothing to defend in that part of the season, nor does he have much to defend post-French Open. We all know, counting Federer out is done at one’s own peril. Expect him to have a say in many of the tournaments after French Open.

The negative is that Novak Djokovic has a lot of points to defend after the clay season.  And with a vastly-improving Next-Gen who seem to have his number in best of three matches and slowly but surely catching up in the best of five matches, that big lead at the top might just be illusory.