How the ATP’s young stars have a unique opening during the Big 3 Era

With Djokovic and Nadal both open to the possibility of skipping the US Open, the ATP’s young stars have a unique opportunity to finally win a Grand Slam.

The return to action for the 2020 ATP season is less than a month away. While confirmations from the tour’s top players have yet become public, speculation has swirled on who’s playing certain events. The most notable question marks come from the ATP’s two best players: #1-ranked Novak Djokovic and #2-ranked Rafael Nadal. As two of the three members of the most famous trio in tennis, every single major championship has the same overarching debate:

Which one of the Big 3 is going to win the event?

With a record of 13-straight Grand Slams taken by a member of the Big 3 (5 by Djokovic, 5 by Nadal, 3 by Federer), each new Grand Slam event opens with the question of whether or not the streak will be ended. Is Nadal going to get to 20? Will Federer pull away from the others and win his 21st? Is this the moment when Djokovic finally overtakes one of them?

These questions are asked more often with every passing event. Their careers are set to end soon and no one knows where they’ll finish in terms of Grand Slams won. Federer might decide to retire after the 2021 season and never win another major. Nadal could win just one more before his injuries catch back up. Djokovic’s reign of terror over the ATP this past decade could come to a screeching halt as the new decade gets into swing.

There hasn’t been much competition for the three legends as of recent years. Stan Wawrinka and Andy Murray seem to be out of their primes given their recent injuries and their ages (35 and 33, respectively). Juan Martin Del Potro recently found his way back into a major championship two years ago but struggled mightily.

The young core of ATP stars, led by Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev, are on their ways to taking over the Big 3 at the top of the tour once they begin to retire.

Thiem looks to be the strongest contender to become the first of the group to reach number one in the world. He’s already ranked 3rd and has three Grand Slam finals appearances under his belt (2018 and 2019 Roland Garros, 2020 Australian Open). The rest have had their shining moments but not enough to boost them above Thiem.

Luckily for them, a golden opportunity has opened up: The 2020 ATP season comeback in New York.

Federer is already out for the year due to injury. Over the past few weeks, rumors have begun to circulate the tour that Nadal and Djokovic will not be participating in both 2020 Grand Slams. Nadal was seen recently practicing on clay and has already been confirmed to headline the Madrid Open in September. Djokovic has discussed his plans to play in both Rome and Madrid (both begin directly after the completion of the US Open and finish directly before Roland Garros’ start date on September 27th).

With that in mind, it’s not outlandish to say that both Djokovic and Nadal will end up skipping the US Open in preparation for Roland Garros. For Nadal, he’ll want to chase his 13th title in Paris and has a better chance of tying Federer’s 20 total majors this year on clay rather than in New York. Djokovic, on the other hand, needs to add some depth to his resume. With only one Roland Garros title, he’ll want to get his second to build up his case for the best all-around players of all time.

This doesn’t the dangers of traveling to the COVID-19 epicenter (the United States). Nadal and Djokovic both have families and a wide range of off-court foundations and organizations that are based in Europe and require a good amount of time. Traveling to Washington and New York to play tennis might not be in their best interests.

This opens the door for the ATP Tour’s “Next Four”. Tsitsipas and Medvedev have both confirmed their participation in the Citi Open, which is the first of two tune-up events leading up to the August 31st beginning of the US Open. Thiem and Zverev have yet to confirm but have been quoted to still be on the fence.

A tournament without the event’s two favorites leaves the trophy wide open for the taking. In the event that the four young stars all compete, it’s still going to be wide open. All four of them have similar records against the others but have achieved different levels of success against the Big 3. This is where Thiem and Medvedev have stood out in the past.

Thiem would still enter the tournament as the favorite. he’s reached the final of the Australian Open on hard courts and has captured 5 hardcourt titles in his career, including the 2019 Indian Wells Masters tournament. While clay is still his preferred surface, hardcourt isn’t terribly far behind.

Tsitsipas and Medvedev would likely come in neck-and-neck behind Thiem as favorites for the speculated US Open draw. Both have achieved varying amounts of success of the surface, which is their preferred surface based on career success. Medvedev has been more successful; he reached the 2019 US Open Final and nearly took down Nadal to win the event. He also has won all 7 of his career titles on hardcourts (including two Masters 1000 wins in Cincinnati and Shanghai).

Tsitsipas has four of his five career titles on hardcourt, most notably being the 2019 ATP Finals. The World #6 might have a slight edge over Medvedev due to his recent success; he’s already captured a hardcourt title this season and looked unbeatable for the last five weeks in France for the Ultimate Tennis Showdown.

Regardless of the favorite, the US Open is going to look very different than ever before. With the possibility of no Big 3 appearance in New York, one of the game’s top young stars could be holding up their very first Grand Slam trophy a few years ahead of schedule.