US Open Final is a make-or-break moment for Dominic Thiem

The US Open final will be a make-or-break moment for Dominic Thiem. Will he finally break through and win his first major championship, or fall back into the fold of his peers?

Dominic Thiem took Daniil Medvedev to school yesterday as he dismantled the defending US Open finalist 6-2, 7-6(7), 7-6(5) in a match where Medvedev was up a break in both the second and third sets. It was textbook Thiem from start to finish; his power was no match for his opponent.

Medvedev’s counter of trying to redirect power back to Thiem was inefficient and ineffective, and despite Thiem’s ankle injury (which might have a significant impact on his status going into Sunday’s final), his control of the match proved he’s ready to become of of the ATP’s perennial Grand Slam finalists.

Thiem saved 6 break points in the match, including a miraculous five of them at 5-all in the second set. As his ankle wore down, Medvedev did, as well. Thiem was clearly the better player and deserved the win, without a doubt.

His opponent tomorrow will be Alexander Zverev, whose wildly inconsistent serve granted him the biggest comeback of his career yesterday as he came back from two sets to love down on his way to his maiden Grand Slam Final. Despite the criticisms and the growing concern that he’d never be up to the same level as Medvedev and Thiem, Zverev proved doubters wrong for yet another time in his career and will look to go 1-for-1 in major finals.

While Thiem might have the edge on the court (regardless of his current injury status), it’s clear that the pressure is 100% on him. At just 23 years of age, Zverev has at least 4 or 5 years to reach his prime as a player, which gives him plenty of time to grow. The expectations of the NextGen group have always been extremely high, as they’ve shown sporadically that they’re capable of taking down the Big 3 but keep this in mind: they’re all incredibly young.

Medvedev is 24, Zverev is 23, and Stefanos Tsitsipas is only 22. It’s easy to say that they should be expected to be more consistent in Grand Slam given that they’ve already shown to be capable on some occasions over the Big 3 but it takes time to truly develop as a player. Roger Federer won his first Grand Slam at 21 years old but came on tour at only 17, meaning it took him 5 years to develop into a major champion. Similarly, it took Novak Djokovic 6 years to win his first Grand Slam at the 200 Australian Open.

For most of the NextGen, they have time to grow. They’ve been competing at an extremely high level for the past 2-3 years and will begin to work their way into more consistent Grand Slam results as they hit their prime. For Dominic Thiem, however, he’s out of time. At 27 years old, it’s time to punch his ticket into the history books as a Grand Slam champion.

It’s easy to defend Thiem on why he’s currently 0-for-3 in his previous attempts at a title. He’s had to face Rafael Nadal in his house: Roland Garros’ Centre Court. If Theim were able to put together a victory in one of those occasions, it would’ve been one of the greatest major upsets in the Open Era. Similarly, Djokovic’s 8-0 record in Australian Open finals only proves he’s the very best down under and if Thiem were to somehow stop his opponent’s comeback, it would’ve gone down in history.

This time, though, Thiem has zero excuses. At 27 years old, he’s reached the prime of his career. It’ unfortunate that he’s had to work through the Big 3 for his entire career but he’s entering his first Grand Slam final as the favorite. It’s absolutely crucial for him to take advantage of the opportunity. He’s shown he’s capable of taking down his NextGen counterparts and it’s now time to prove he can be a major champion.

This could be his undoing, however. While he did control his match of Medvedev, he had the supreme power advantage. Zverev has the power to match and also has nothing to lose. It’s already been a career week for him and, while he’d like to win, it won’t be a career-altering loss like it will be if Thiem can’t seal the deal. Zverev’s nothing to lose mentality going into tomorrow’s final might be the key he needs to get even with the more consistent World #3.

Thiem needs this title. While he could end up pulling a Djokovic and destroy his competition in a few years, a win tomorrow would surely give him a leg-up moving forward. Most importantly, his confidence will be brimming heading into Roland Garros at the end of the month.

For the first time in his career, Dominic Thiem is a favorite. This could be the title that begins his Hall of Fame-worthy career or the one that sets him back into the pack alongside his younger counterparts. The weight of the world is on him and it’ll be a make-or-break few hours tomorrow.