How Rafael Nadal’s Rome loss opens the door at Roland Garros

Rafael Nadal’s shocking loss in Rome was a reminder that no one is perfect. Here’s why the top stars’ struggles in the ATP opens the door next week at Roland Garros.

Rafael Nadal put on a shockingly underwhelming match tonight against Diego Schwartzman, losing in straight sets (6-2, 7-5) in his quarterfinal match at this week’s Masters 1000 event in Rome.

It wasn’t a huge shock to see him bow out given his lack of match play over the last six months but is definitely out of the ordinary given his prowess on the surface. Tonight’s straight-sets loss saw Nadal fall victim to his first loss in a clay-court event before the semifinals since his loss to Dominic Thiem in Madrid 2018. His last loss to a player ranked lower than 15th (Schwarztman’s current ranking) came in 2016 to 30th-ranked Fabio Fognini in Hamburg.

This marks the first time since 2015 that he’ll enter Roland Garros without a clay-court title to his name. Whether or not that shoots down his confidence heading into the event is anyone’s guess but, similar to the tone of the match today, it’s not something the tennis world is used to.

The King of Clay’s surprisingly inconsistent serve that simply put him in too large of a hole to climb out of. He served a paltry 43% on his first serve and, contrary to his previous two wins this week, only won 48% of points off of his first serve for the match (13-for-27). It was almost more startling to see his numbers on the return. He only won just 36% of points won on Schwartzman’s first serve and 42% on his opponent’s second.

"“It was not my night at all. He played very well, not me. This kind of thing can happen after a long time without playing. I managed two good matches, tonight a bad one,” Nadal said after the loss."

Nadal’s loss should very well be overshadowed by Schwartman’s career night. He played brilliantly from beginning to end and showed his ability to both jump out to a commanding lead and take control of a tight match down the stretch. He won a total of 54% of points on Nadal’s serve and looked completely in control while returning the second serve.

After ripping through the first set 6-2, Schwartzman seemed on the path of squandering his lead after Nadal immediately brought the match back on serve on two separate occasions (at 4-3, and 5-4). The World #15, however, came up clutch and broke Nadal for the third consecutive time at 5-all before holding serve to win the match.

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It’s not all sunshine and roses heading into 2020’s third Grand Slam (and second in two months). Top stars are faltering and frustrations are certainly brimming as a result. Sofia Kenin was just double-bageled by Victoria Azarenka and Novak Djokovic was just taken to three sets against 97th-ranked Dominik Koepfer. It’s nothing more than the name of the game currently.

With that said, it opens up a lot of questions about the ATP frontrunners heading into Roland Garros next week. US Open Champion, Dominic Thiem, is playing some of his best tennis in 2020 despite being nagged with an ankle injury throughout his title run in New York. He’ll still be one of the top candidates to take the title in Paris.

Many people forget that Novak Djokovic technically hasn’t lost a match in 2020 if you take out his default. While he hasn’t looked 100% so far in Rome, he’s the number one player in the world for a reason. There isn’t a concrete answer to where he would’ve finished if the events of his fourth-round match took place differently but heading into Paris, he’s a clear favorite.

The shaky play of both Djokovic and Nadal so far also opens the door for some of the “second-tier” clay-courters. The same happened in New York, as Pablo Carreno Busta made his second US Open semifinal and both Alex de Minaur and Borna Coric were quarterfinalists. It’s going to be a similar result next week. Players are all in varying situations in terms of surface preparation, which will definitely aid the underdogs in a possible deep run.

Rafael Nadal will compete for a record-tying 20th Grand Slam title and a 13th win in Paris. It’ll surely be the turning point in the everlasting Federer-Nadal-Djokovic debate if he’s able to come away with a win. Standing in his way, however, is the 17-time major champion Novak Djokovic in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career, as well as Dominic Thiem, who’s seeking a second consecutive major title.

Next. What to make of Rafael Nadal's ATP return in Rome. dark

Roland Garros begins September 21st and will only allow 5,000 spectators on the grounds (all of whom are only allowed on Phillippe Chatrier) due to the rise in COVID-19 cases in France over the last month.

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