French Open: Dominant Dominic Thiem could be a huge threat to Nadal

PARIS, FRANCE - OCTOBER 02: Dominic Thiem of Austria celebrates during his match against Casper Ruud of Norway in the third round of the men’s singles at Roland Garros on October 02, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE - OCTOBER 02: Dominic Thiem of Austria celebrates during his match against Casper Ruud of Norway in the third round of the men’s singles at Roland Garros on October 02, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images) /
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Rafael Nadal is rolling into this year’s French Open seeking his 13th title. Despite this, Dominic Thiem has both the confidence and the early-round dominance to take down the king.

The headlines going into the this year’s French Open was largely centered around Dominic Thiem and for good reason. As the defending Grand Slam champion, discussions came about regarding his chances of going back-to-back. Once the draw came out, people questioned those chances at even making the semifinal due to the extremely tough quarter he was working with. Diego Schwartzman and Stan Wawrinka, two of the best clay courters in the world, were waiting for him in the later rounds, with a Rafael Nadal-Novak Djokovic duo seeming to taunt him in the final two rounds.

Thiem is now into the 4th Round and is showing signs of dominance on his favorite surface. The doubts are fading and are being replaced with a newfound confidence in his ability to make it past his brutal half and into the final for the third straight year, hopefully, this time ending with a different result than prior.

Outside of a third set tiebreak against Jack Sock where the US Open champion was forced to save three set points (before winning the match’s final five points), he’s looked flawless. Thiem has dealt with big servers, athletic baseliners, and clay specialists, none of whom could get anywhere close to beating him at any stage in their respective matches.

Thiem will have a stroke of luck to go along with his much-improved play. He avoids a Round 4 encounter with Stan Wawrinka as the former French Open champion was bested in five sets by Hugo Gaston. This opens up the draw significantly, as the highest remaining seed in Thiem’s way before the semifinals (where he’ll almost definitely face Nadal) is Diego Schwartzman. Thiem leads their head-to-head 6-2 overall (3-1 on clay) and has won their last three matches. It’s going to be a struggle for the Argentinian to keep up with Thiem’s power and skill on clay and shouldn’t be that much of a problem for the latter.

Not only does Thiem have the advantage of a slightly easier draw, but his dominance so far also gets him close to on par with Nadal. He’s been known to take out the king himself across all surfaces (most recently in Australia this year) and currently holds a 5-9 record against the King himself. Thiem certainly has what it takes to beat Nadal on clay and in best-of-five. The looming question is whether or not he can combine the two this coming week.

The chances are definitely high. Nadal is surely confident in his abilities but entered this year’s event without a clay tuneup title (something he’s never done in years he’s won the French). Alternatively, Thiem is rolling into his upcoming match with a 10-match winning streak after finally getting over the cusp for his first Grand Slam title.

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As tennis is an individual sport, it’s all about the current. Past results don’t have any effect on a given match. It doesn’t matter that Nadal is a 12-time French Open champion and is the best clay-court player of all-time. Dominic Thiem is brimming with confidence as one of the only players in the world that can take Nadal the distance in his backyard. Confidence and dominance are key, and Dominic Thiem has them both.