9 for 9: The case for each of the French Open’s top three ATP candidates
The French Open’s top three candidates have yet to drop a set through three rounds. Here’s the case for each of them to win the title this week in Paris.
The top three ATP candidates to take this year’s ATP title — Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Dominic Thiem — have all put together flawless starts to their stays in Paris, not dropping a set in any of their opening three matches. They’ve taken out some solid opponents so far as well and are considered neck-and-neck to hold the trophy next weekend.
The questions remain: Who has the best shot? Who’ll come out of the Nadal-Thiem half? Can Djokovic take down one of the two best players in the world on clay? All will be answered. Before the three juggernauts take the court for their fourth-round matches, we’ll assess each of their chances at winning the title.
1. Novak Djokovic
Novak Djokovic hasn’t lost a match this season outside of his infamous default at the US Open last month. At 34-1, there simply isn’t a better player statistically that can match up with the World #1. He’s looking perfect through three rounds in Paris and dropped just one set on his way to a Rome title two weeks ago.
Djokovic hasn’t had a challenging match so far and most likely won’t see anything remotely close until the semifinal, where he’ll likely face either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andry Rublev (barring any shock upsets). He has his first real test against Karen Kachanov (seeded 15th) and will face the winner of Pablo Carreno Busta and Danil Altmaier. Djokovic’s biggest pre-semifinals test, Matteo Berrettini, was taken out by Altmaier in straight sets.
Where does Djokovic have the edge over Thiem and Nadal? For starters, he’ll have little issues getting through to the finals, unless Stefanos Tsitsipas can put together the match of his life and finally take Djokovic down in a best-of-five match for the first time. Other than him, no one necessarily poses a large enough threat for the 17-time Grand Slam champion to be stopped.
It all comes down to the finals. Thiem has won four of their last six meetings dating back to the 2017 French Open, which included two wins in Paris. Djokovic had the upper hand in their last meeting, a dramatic 5-set, come-from-behind victory to take the title in Australia. We all know the Djokovic-Nadal rivalry. It’s worthy to note that the latter a 17-7 on clay and a 6-1 advantage in Paris specifically.
Where Djokovic has the edge: 2020 success and ability to outplay anyone in best-of-five.
It’s a worthy argument to say that Djokovic is the best player when it comes to a best-of-five match, especially in recent years. We’ve seen him run through opponents, as well as come back from behind to win. At 69% for his career, he sports one of the best Grand Slam career records of all-time (only behind Nadal’s 76%). Where Djokovic does have the edge, however, is in his fifth set record. He holds a 31-10 record in the category (76%), which far outpaces Nadal and Thiem’s 65 and 56 percent records.