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9 for 9: The case for each of the French Open’s top three ATP candidates

By Brandon Daniels

PARIS, FRANCE - SEPTEMBER 30: Rafael Nadal of Spain celebrates his victory over Mackenzie McDonald of the United States in the second round of the men’s singles at Roland Garros on September 30, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE - SEPTEMBER 30: Rafael Nadal of Spain celebrates his victory over Mackenzie McDonald of the United States in the second round of the men’s singles at Roland Garros on September 30, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by TPN/Getty Images) /
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PARIS, FRANCE – OCTOBER 02: Rafael Nadal of Spain celebrates after winning match point during his Men’s Singles third round match against Stefano Travaglia of Italy on day six of the 2020 French Open at Roland Garros on October 02, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE – OCTOBER 02: Rafael Nadal of Spain celebrates after winning match point during his Men’s Singles third round match against Stefano Travaglia of Italy on day six of the 2020 French Open at Roland Garros on October 02, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images) /

2. Rafael Nadal

Nadal is, of course, the King of Clay. As a 12-time champion and victory in all but two of his 96 matches at the French Open, he enters every year as the favorite. This year was different as he wasn’t regarded as the sole favorite, mainly due to Dominic Thiem’s US Open title and his own lack of a clay title prior to the start of Roland Garros.

He’s looked extremely solid in his three wins so far — no surprise there. He’s faced only two break points so far in the tournament (with only one capitalized on), all the while converting 18 of 0 break points of his own. While none of his opponents can be considered top-tier talent on today’s tour (we’ll touch back on that idea later), Nadal’s dominance is still a very impressive feat. It seems as though his serve is back to how it has been throughout his entire career: extremely effective. In his loss to Diego Schwartzman last week in Rome, his serve was flat and lacked any kind of is trademark accuracy. All has changed as he rolls through on his home courts.

Where Nadal has the edge: Familiarity, past dominance, and history on his side.

No other player has dominated a tournament quite like Nadal. What makes his incredible records all the more outstanding is the fact that’s it’s being done at a Grand Slam. This level of dominance over his peers at a high-level tournament like this is simply remarkable.

Statistically, this gives Nadal the edge. Outside of the two years he was injured in 2015 and 2016 and the one shocking loss to Robin Sodering in 2009, he’s been unstoppable, whether it’s against Roger Federer in his prime, Djokovic at the height of his 2010s run, or Thiiem as he rises to become one of the best on tour.

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