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Down to One: Breaking down the two scenarios for the last ATP Finals spot

By Brandon Daniels

PARIS, FRANCE - NOVEMBER 5: Diego Schwartzman of Argentina celebrates his victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina of Spain during day 4 of the Rolex Paris Masters, an ATP Masters 1000 tournament held behind closed doors at AccorHotels Arena formerly known as Paris Bercy on November 5, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by Jean Catuffe/Getty Images)
PARIS, FRANCE - NOVEMBER 5: Diego Schwartzman of Argentina celebrates his victory over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina of Spain during day 4 of the Rolex Paris Masters, an ATP Masters 1000 tournament held behind closed doors at AccorHotels Arena formerly known as Paris Bercy on November 5, 2020 in Paris, France. (Photo by Jean Catuffe/Getty Images) /
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The race for the last ATP Finals spot is down to two players: Diego Schwartzman and Pablo Carreno Busta. Here are the scenarios for each of them to qualify.

The Race for the last ATP Finals spot is down to its last stretch. Currently, seven players have all officially qualified:

  1. Novak Djokovic
  2. Rafael Nadal
  3. Dominic Thiem
  4. Daniil Medvedev
  5. Stefanos Tsitsipas
  6. Alexander Zverev
  7. Andrey Rublev

The eighth and final spot is up for grabs, and with the majority of players in the top twenty who have both not qualified for the finals but still in contention have decided to skip the current event taking place (the Rolex Paris Masters). In fact, only four players (Diego Schwartzman, Matteo Berrettini, David Goffin, Pablo Carreno Busta) who fit the aforementioned criteria even entered the event.

Two of those names can already be crossed off the list. Both Berrettini and Goffin lost their opening-round matches in Paris to Marcos Giron and Norbert Gombos, respectively. For Berrettini, he fails to make his first-ever ATP Finals appearance after putting together a solid showing during the beginning half of 2020. For Goffin, yet another early loss is only a reminder of the many struggles he’s faced this year as a result of COVID-19 and an overall lack of consistency. He’ll look to bounce back next year with hopes of returning to London for the first time since 2017.

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The scenarios for Schwartzman and Carreno Busta, the last remaining contenders for the eighth spot, are vastly different. Schwartzman is the heavy favorite of the two and needs just one more match win in Paris to officially put his name into the London race (a semis appearance gives him 360 points, which will put him enough points ahead of Carreno Busta to guarantee him his spot).

It isn’t going to be anywhere close to easy, however. He faces the formidable Daniil Medvedev in the quarterfinals. The ATP World No. 5 hasn’t had the best of showings since reaching the US Open quarterfinals in September but has rebounded nicely so far this week. After a walkover win against Kevin Anderson, Medvedev fought brilliantly back from a set down to defeat Alex de Minaur (who’s had quite the 2020 campaign himself on hard courts). He served up 13 aces and a 74% 1st serve percentage, all the while taking control of de Minaur serve down the stretch with a 70% win rate on the Australian’s second serve.

On the other side, Schwartzman hasn’t dropped a set in two matches. With wins over Richard Gasquet and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, he’s in a prime position to take on Medvedev in a Finals-clinching matchup.

In the event that Schwartzman ends up losing, what will Carreno Busta have to do to take the final spot?

Carreno Busta, in conjunction with a Schwartzman quarterfinal loss, will need to win the tournament this week in order to push past Schwartzman in points. Currently, Schwartzman leads Carreno Busta 3,365 to 2,445. Given that the maximum amount of points earned in a Masters 1000 event is 1000, a title this week would, hypothetically, push Carreno Busta to 3,445 points, giving him the edge over Schwartzman enough to sneak into the ATP Finals.

It isn’t going to be anywhere close to easy for him, though. He faces Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals, and even with a miraculous win, will have to go through either US Open finalist Alexander Zverev or five-time 2020 title winner, Andrey Rublev, in the semis. Finally, Medvedev, Milos Raonic, and Ugo Humbert (one of the best rising stars of 2020) could all be waiting in the title match.

Next. 2020 Paris Masters: Who will be this year’s champion?. dark

It’s going to be incredibly tough for Carreno Busta, however, he might not even have to worry about it if Schwartzman is able to overcome Medvedev to clinch his spot. The French Open semifinalist plays tomorrow at 8:00 AM EST (3 PM local time). Carreno Busta’s fate will first be decided by this match before he goes on to face Nadal in the quarterfinals the following day.

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