Why Rafa Nadal will not win the French Open in 2021
The other day, I wrote an article on why I believe Nadal will win the French Open this year, which you can read below.
Why Rafael Nadal will win the French Open in 2021 (lobandsmash.com)
There are many reasons to believe that Nadal will win the French Open, one of them of course is that he a 13-time French Open champion and the greatest clay court tennis player of all time. However, even with all his accomplishments on clay, his game is not where it usually is entering the tournament, and there is a chance that he could fall before the final. Here are a few reasons why Nadal will not take home the trophy in Paris in 2021.
Age
The biggest reason why Nadal will not win the French Open is because of his age. Rafa is no longer as durable as he used to be, with small injuries starting to pop up with a higher frequency. The other thing getting older will affect is the recover in between matches. At the French Open, Nadal will need to win seven best of five matches in a two-week span to win the title, something that may be easy to do in your 20’s, but a lot harder at 34. Nadal will actually be turning 35 in the middle of the tournament, as his birthday falls on June 3rd.
We have seen a big difference in Nadal’s play this year as opposed to years prior. He is still capable of playing like the best player in the world on any given day, but now there are more days where he does not play his best and loses. Some examples of this in 2021 include the quarterfinals loss in Australia to Stefanos Tsitsipas, the loss to Andrey Rublev at Monte Carlo in the quarters, and the loss to Alexander Zverev in Madrid a couple weeks ago. As Rafa continues to get older, he will have more of these days where he will not have his best game, and with it more surprising losses will come, which could include the French Open this year.
Form coming into Roland Garros
Although Rafa will be coming into the French Open on a five-match winning streak, he will not be as confident as he usually is before the French. He did win his last tournament, the ATP Masters 1000 title in Rome, but he has had a couple bad losses on clay this year. The losses to Rublev and Zverev were big upsets, especially because of how early the losses came in the tournament. With both of the losses coming in the quarterfinals, it has made it more difficult for Nadal to get a lot of match experience before the French, which could be trouble for the world number three.
The other contenders
This year more than any other, there will be multiple players besides Nadal that can win the French Open. The last few years, it was Djokovic as the only one that could pull off the miracle and defeat Nadal at the French, but now there are a few more players who have proven that they can beat Rafa if he is not at his absolute best.
The other contenders that I am talking about include Dominic Thiem, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Alexander Zverev. Each of these players have beaten Nadal in the past and have a good shot to do it again. I believe that all three of them are no longer scared to play Nadal in a Major and will step out on the court knowing that they can beat him. Tsitsipas proved this year that he can beat Nadal in a Grand Slam, coming back from two sets to love at the Australian Open. Thiem has proven over the years that he is one of the best players on clay not named Nadal, and he did take a set off of Nadal in the final of the French Open in 2019. Zverev on the other hand should have the most confidence against Nadal currently, as he is the last player to beat Rafa, defeating him in Madrid in a convincing fashion, 6-4, 6-4.
Even though these three are all capable of beating Nadal at this year’s French Open, Djokovic is still the one with the best chance to do it. In Rome last week, it was Nadal that was able to beat Djokovic in the final, but it was a very tight three set match. What Djokovic should take away from the match is how well he played in that second set, where he completely stopped Nadal’s momentum, and took the set 6-1. Although he ended up losing the third set, Djokovic should come away with the confidence in knowing that if he plays like he did in that second set for an entire match, he will be able to beat Nadal.
Number 14 may have to wait for Nadal
Nadal will be coming into the French Open as a big favorite once again. It will be hard to bet against him, especially because his last loss at Roland Garros came in 2015. However, that loss came to Djokovic, who might be playing better right now than in that 2015 match. Add Tsitsipas, Thiem, and Zverev to the mix as well, and I could see someone other than Nadal holding the trophy on the second Sunday in June.