Alex de Minaur had better enjoy his first-round bye at the Rolex Monte-Carlo Masters, because that is probably the last break he will get in the first big event of the 2025 clay-court season.
Based on the average world ranking of likely opponents, De Minaur has the toughest draw among the top seeds for the ATP 1000 event, which gets underway on April 6 in Monaco.
De Minaur, the No. 8 seed for the 56-player event, likely will face No. 21 Tomas Machac in his first match. Machac was just two ranking spots from being seeded himself. If de Minaur makes the last 16, his previous four matches could all be against opponents in the world’s top 11.
Alex de Minaur gets unlucky Monte-Carlo Masters draw
Sebastian Baez is likely the only player with a worse draw than de Minaur. Baez, the world No. 36, plays Machac in the first round, and then would follow the same path in the draw as de Minaur. Baez conceivably could play six matches against opponents in the top 21 and five matches against opponents ranked 11th or better.
No. 7 Andrey Rublev has the most favorable draw among the top players, based on the average world ranking of likely opponents. After a first-round bye, Rublev will face 38-year-old Gael Monfils or a qualifier in his first match. No. 12 Arthur Fils – talented but still just 20 years old - would be the likely opponent in the round of 16.
Grigor Dimitrov has a favorable draw for the second consecutive ATP 1000 event. Dimitrov, the No. 15 seed, opens against No. 58 Nicolas Jarry, one of the lowest-ranked players to get a spot in the main draw without qualifying. Dimitrov would get a manageable second-round matchup against No. 49 Jan-Lennard Struff or Monégasque wild card Valentin Vacherot, who has never cracked the top 100.
No. 39 Matteo Arnaldi got, statistically, the best draw among the unseeded players. Arnaldi opens against 38-year-old Richard Gasquet, who has played just three tour-level matches this year. Arnaldi would face Felix Auger-Aliassime – the last of the event’s 16 seeds – or a qualifier in the second round. Stefanos Tsitsipas is the event’s reigning champion.