Now, where did that come from? For 10 months, Casper Ruud has been a relative afterthought on the ATP Tour. Steadily becoming more known for his off-day golf exploits than any recent accomplishment between the tramlines, the Norwegian dropped from his cushy top 10 spot to 15th in the world rankings, his lowest spot since July 2021.
Outside of a plucky semifinal run at the ATP Finals last November, Ruud’s form post-2024 French Open had unfortunately begun to mirror his famous on-court demeanor: ice cold.
Yet this sport has a habit of throwing out results that can be difficult (or downright impossible) to decipher, and last week’s Madrid Masters was no different. Casper Ruud, at last, is a Masters 1000 champion, and his coronation has come at an inexplicable time.
Casper Ruud could be a threat at the French Open (again)
After a second round exit in years’ first grand slam in Melbourne and going a dismal 3-3 in his first three Masters tournaments this season, Ruud found an inspired run from essentially nowhere in the Spanish capital, winning 10 sets in a row before battling past the tour's most in-form man, new world no.5 Jack Draper, in three gruelling sets in Sunday’s final.
How exactly did we get here? It’s worth noting Ruud’s list of victims wasn’t exactly a list of clay court demons, but it would be unfair to call it a cakewalk.
On the way to his third Masters final, Ruud fought off the always dangerous Sebastian Korda, the uber-consistent world No. 4 Taylor Fritz, a former Rome Masters titlist (people forget!) in Daniil Medvedev, and Francisco Cerundolo, who has quietly become one of the tour's most interesting dark horses, in a cagey Friday night semifinal.
Ruud dispatched each of these men in straight sets, though that does leave a somewhat misleading representation of his level. While he shone in the early rounds, he surrendered a shocking 18 break-point opportunities to Cerundolo, winning just 42.9 percent of points on second serve.
That latter figure dropped even lower in the final against Draper, settling at 38.5 percent by the time the final ball was bounced, with seven double faults sprinkled in there for good measure.
Yet Ruud’s ability to overcome this potentially fatal flaw was defined by his timing. Not just in his ball striking but also in his incredible control, particularly on the forehand wing, drowning his opponents with those deep looping groundstrokes that once carried him to No. 2 in the world.
He also showed his ability to withstand pressure points, stay aggressive from the baseline when he could have easily crawled into his shell, and find crucial first serves when he desperately needed a cheap point.
The result hauls Ruud back up to ATP No. 7, and with almost no points to defend in Rome this week, he sits with a fantastic chance of claiming an all-important top 8 seed for his trip to Paris at the end of this month.
For those who’ve forgotten, Ruud has quietly dominated the clay at Roland Garros. He is equal to Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev in French Open match wins over the last three years and has two Grand Slam final appearances on his resume.
He is also by far the most prolific clay court winner on the men's tour over the last five years, with a staggering 125-35 record on the surface since 2020, more than 30 wins more than 2nd-place Stefanos Tsitsipas in that timeframe. While many of those wins have come at the ATP 250/500 level, the confidence that Ruud has accrued with the rich red dust underneath his feet has to be worth something.
With that in mind and the French Open just a stone’s throw away, the next question is obvious: is Casper back in the conversation for a maiden major title? As many questions surround the health, match-fitness, and form of the world’s top 3, there appears to be more potential for a dark horse to emerge through a now crowded second-tier contender field and capitalise than usual.
Ruud is as good a candidate as any, especially if he can summon the form he displayed in Madrid to pair with the volume of experience he possesses, which gives him the edge over some of his younger, greener counterparts, including the man he outlasted on Sunday night.
Did we see anything last week to suggest he has found a truly new level, one that could compete with that which we have seen from a peaking Alcaraz, or a returning world No. 1 Jannik Sinner (against whom he holds a miserable 1-7 combined head-to-head record)? To put it bluntly, no.
However, if either or both were to falter early, would anyone else be a more reliable option to step out from behind the curtain and claim the ovation of the Philippe Chatrier crowd on Championship Sunday? After 10 months of toil for not much reward, that all might’ve seemed a pretty far-fetched scenario for Casper Ruud just over a week ago. Maybe it isn't so far-fetched anymore?