There have been some missed opportunities for players at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open. ATP No. 2 Alexander Zverev could somewhat close the gap on No. 1 Jannik Sinner (at least, make the two closer in points), but the German was defeated in the second round. The 2024 Indian Wells champion, Carlos Alcaraz, is still alive for the title, though.
While Sinner is not due back until early May from his suspension for two failed drug tests at last year's BNP Paribas Open, Zverev and Alcaraz have been trying to make up ground. Neither has. Zverev had the best chance but has not taken advantage of any of his chances.
Alcaraz won't pick up points at Indian Wells, either. Since he won last year, he is only trying to get the points back he dropped. His next best chance to get closer to Sinner will come at the Miami Open. But here is who we think will win the 2025 semifinals on the men's side.
Predicting the ATP semifinals at the 2025 BNP Paribas Open
Carlos Alcaraz (2) versus Jack Draper (13)
Alcaraz leads the head-to-head over Draper 3-1 (Draper won on the grass of Queen's Club in 2024), but, oddly, Draper has not finished two of the matches and retired. Now, there is no reason to think that Draper did not get injured in those two matches, but he was trailing considerably in both. On any other surface than grass, does Draper believe he can beat the Spaniard?
To be sure, Draper has to get off to a great start versus Alcaraz. If he falls behind, the Spaniard is going to take the match in two easy sets. If the Brit takes the first set, Alcaraz will probably still take the final two, but at least the match will be competitive. The Spaniard knows he can win at Indian Wells as he did so last year.
No matter what, though, the match will feature two of the best young players on the ATP tour. Alcaraz is so far much more accomplished than Draper, but should Draper pull off the upset, that could catapult him toward being a true threat to win a Grand Slam in 2025. Alcaraz will win this match in straight sets, though.
Holger Rune (12) versus Daniil Medvedev (5)
Until Indian Wells, Rune had had a poor year. He won three matches at the Australian Open before losing to Jannik Sinner in the round of 16, but he had not made it past the second round of any other event until the BNP Paribas Open. He was twice bounced out in the first round of events. Rune has the skill to be very good, but he lets his temper get in the way far too often.
That is not going to be any easier against Medvedev, who knows how to get inside the head of his opponent. Plus, the Russian is very good on hard surfaces and is able to be competitive against any player. The victory would mean a lot more for Rune than Medvedev as Rune still has to have some doubts about his form, but the skill level advantage has to go to the Russian.
This should be a fun match to watch, though. Rune has great power, while Medvedev is much more of a chess-type tennis player. The guess is that the Russian will win in straight sets.
Indian Wells ATP semifinals details:
- Time of first match: Rune and Medvedev will play at 4:30 pm ET (1:30 pm PT), and Alcaraz/Draper will follow.
- How to watch: The Tennis Channel will carry the action in the United States; click here for all listings.
- Location: The tournament is held at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California. All the courts have hard surfaces.