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Carlos Alcaraz's latest setback raises the question tennis fans feared

But what happens now?
Carlos Alcaraz wipes his face
Carlos Alcaraz wipes his face | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Carlos Alcaraz won't be making a comeback at the Cincinnati Open from a wrist injury he suffered in April after all. The tournament announced on Tuesday that, due to lingering effects of the ailment, the Spaniard will need to skip the event. The question now is: what are his chances of playing in the US Open?

Before the announcement, mixed signals had been given to tennis fans, though not maliciously. Clearly, Alcaraz and his team were hoping to play Cincinnati to prepare for the US Open, which begins the week after the Cincinnati Masters ends. Alcaraz had been seen in many social media posts practicing.

Many fans also pointed out that while Alcaraz was going through drills, he wasn't necessarily doing so with his full power. That observation proved truer than many hoped, though. The truth is that now he is out of Cincinnati, making a return at the US Open seems unlikely too.

Carlos Alcaraz will miss the Cincinnati Masters

If the current ATP No. 2, who will move to No. 3 by dropping the 1,000 points he won in Cincinnati last year when he defeated an ill Jannik Sinner in the final, doesn't play any warm-up tournaments and tries out his wrist at a grueling Grand Slam that features best-of-five matches, that would seem like a mistake.

The US Open begins on Sunday, August 23, and goes through Sunday, September 13. If Alcaraz is unable to play in Ohio, he seems unlikely to play in New York, and if he doesn't play at the major, why try to return before the year is done? His missing the rest of 2026 is as much of a possibility as his returning at any point.

What his fans, and tennis fans in general, don't want is for Carlos Alcaraz to come back until he is fully healed from the wrist injury he suffered at the Barcelona Open in April, the second straight year he has had some kind of ailment at the 500 tournament.

One would assume he wouldn't play the event anytime soon, simply because it comes between Masters 1000 tournaments, which are more important.

The Alcaraz camp isn't likely to announce his withdrawal from the US Open soon, though at least they let fans planning on traveling to Cincinnati know well in advance that he wouldn't be playing. That was the best way to let the news be known.

Should Alcaraz miss the US Open, he would drop another 2,000 points, as he won the Grand Slam in 2025. By the time he returns, he could be closer to No. 5 in the rankings than No. 1.

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