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Elena Rybakina has a mountain to climb to steal year-end No. 1

A great victory, but...
ByKyle Wright
U.S. Open champion Elena Rybakina is the WTA's new No. 1 player. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Robert Deutsch
U.S. Open champion Elena Rybakina is the WTA's new No. 1 player. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters/Robert Deutsch | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters

Newly crowned U.S. Open champion Elena Rybakina is also the newly crowned No. 1 player in the WTA rankings. Rybakina was assured of ending Aryna Sabalenka’s 99-week reign at No. 1 once she reached the U.S. Open semifinals this past weekend.

Rybakina is the 30th player to reach No. 1 since the WTA computer rankings began in 1975. She’s the first player representing Kazakhstan to reach the top spot. At age 27 and a few months, she’s the second-oldest player (behind Angelique Kerber) to achieve the No. 1 ranking for the first time.

You might think Rybakina, with two major titles to her credit in 2026, is all but assured to finish the year as the WTA's No. 1 player. And, you'd be wrong.

Elena Rybakina won the US Open but still has work to do

Rybakina did give herself a much-needed cushion in the race for year-end No. 1 by winning her second major of the year in New York. Had Rybakina lost the U.S. Open final against Sabalenka, then Sabalenka would have held the edge in the race for year-end No. 1.

Instead, Rybakina has some much-needed breathing room in the chase for No. 1 – more than 1,000 ranking points - entering the final weeks of the season. The margin isn’t big enough to guarantee Rybakina the year-end No. 1 spot, but it’s a good head start.

Who else moved up the WTA rankings during the summer hard-court season?

While Rybakina’s move to No. 1 deservedly will get most of the attention, Elina Svitolina had the biggest jump within the top 10, rising from No. 10 to No. 7 during the summer hard-court season.

Alexandra Eala delighted her many fans with a 10-spot improvement to No. 18 on the strength of her win at the WTA 500 event in Washington, D.C.

Former top-five player Qinwen Zheng seems to be healthy again and is zooming back up the rankings. She moved from outside the top 100 to No. 52 after a dramatic run to the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open, with comeback wins against Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek.

Who moved down?

Jasmine Paolini slipped five spots to No. 20, the biggest post-Wimbledon fall within the top 20.
Injuries have kept Emma Raducanu off the tour since mid-June. Her ranking has slipped more than 50 spots to No. 89.

Who could rise?

Current No. 5 Mirra Andreeva is defending by far the fewest fall ranking points among the top players. She could rise another spot or two before the end of the year and has an outside shot at making a run at year-end No. 1.

It’ll be tough for anyone currently outside the top eight to crack the lineup for the eight-player WTA Finals, but current No. 10 Marta Kostyuk has the best chance. Kostyuk hasn’t had a bad result since spring and isn’t defending many ranking points this fall.

Who could fall?

No. 11 Amanda Anisimova’s slide could continue. She’s already fallen from No. 3 to outside the top 10 in the last few months. She could fall another 10 spots or so without a good fall result or two.

On paper, Wimbledon winner and current No. 6 Linda Noskova is in the most tenuous position among the current top eight to maintain a top-eight spot through the WTA Finals – but it probably won’t matter. Even if Noskova falls outside the top eight, she’ll qualify for the WTA’s season-ending championship as the highest-ranked Grand Slam winner outside the cutoff line.

3 years ago this happened

This week in 2023, Sabalenka ascended to No. 1 for the first time after a runner-up finish at the U.S. Open. Sabalenka ended Swiatek’s 75-week reign at No. 1.

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