The draw is aligned for Jannik Sinner to claim his third consecutive Australian Open title. Sinner, the two-time defending champion Down Under, has the most favorable draw for the late stages of the first major of 2026. Consider Sinner’s likely opponents for the second week in Melbourne:
- In the Round of 16, Sinner’s most likely foe is Karen Khachanov, who is ranked outside the world’s top 16.
- In the quarterfinals, Sinner’s most likely opponent is Ben Shelton, at No. 8, the lowest of the top eight seeds. Sinner has beaten Shelton eight times in a row without dropping so much as a set.
- In the semifinals, Sinner’s most likely foe is Novak Djokovic, at No. 4, the lowest of the top four seeds. Djokovic might be the GOAT, but Sinner has beaten him in their last five meetings.
With some help from the draw, it’s Sinner’s title to lose when the 128-player event gets underway Jan. 17.
Who got the toughest and easiest draws for the Australian Open?
Toughest draw for a top seed
The good news for No. 7 seed Felic Auger-Aliassime: He’s in the quarter of the draw that doesn’t include Sinner, Djokovic, or No. 1 seed Carlos Alcaraz.
The bad news: He’ll have to work hard to get to the late stages of the tournament. Auger-Aliassime will face a top-50 opponent, Nuno Borges, in the first round. A likely matchup against fast-rising Learner Tien looms in Round 3.
He could face a resurgent No. 11 seed Daniil Medvedev in the Round of 16. If he gets through all that, he’d probably have to beat No. 3 seed Alexander Zverev, Alcaraz, and Sinner back-to-back-to-back to claim the title.
Best draw for Week 1
No. 16 seed Jakub Mensik is well-positioned to get through the early rounds. He won’t play anyone ranked better than No. 92 in his first two matches. If Mensik can make it to the Round of 16, he should have confidence against his likely opponent, Djokovic. Mensik beat Djokovic in the final of the ATP 1000 event in Miami last spring.
Worst draw
If Auger-Aliassime’s draw is bad, then Borges’ is worse. Borges would have to beat Auger-Aliassime in the first round just to assume the gauntlet that is Auger-Aliassime’s draw.
Best opportunity for an unseeded player
By definition, the quarter of the draw most likely to produce a surprise run is the quarter that doesn’t include Alcaraz, Sinner, or Djokovic. Looking at that section, world No. 88 Emilio Nava, a 24-year-old American, has an opportunity for a breakthrough.
He faces French qualifier Kyrian Jacquet in the first round. No. 26 seed Cameron Norrie is a challenging but not overwhelmingly likely opponent in the second round.