History says the “Sunshine Double” will propel Jannik Sinner back to the No. 1 ranking sometime in the next 52 weeks.
Sinner won the ATP Masters 1000 event in Miami this past weekend, adding the trophy to the ATP Masters 1000 title he won at Indian Wells earlier this month. Sinner became the eighth player to complete the Indian Wells-Miami sweep.
A player completing the Sunshine Double has gone on to claim the No. 1 ranking sometime in the ensuing 52 weeks 83.3 percent of the time (10 times out of 12 – Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer achieved the Sunshine Double multiple times).
Jannik Sinner closer to No. 1 after taking the Sunshine Double
Sinner is still No. 2 behind Carlos Alcaraz in the PIF ATP Rankings, but continues to make up the ground he ceded last spring when he sat out three months due to an anti-doping rule violation.
Sinner’s marvelous March reduced Alcaraz’s lead from more than 3,000 ranking points coming out of the Australian Open to just 1,190 heading into the clay-court season. Sinner could be in a position to wrestle away the top ranking by the French Open.
For now, Alcaraz starts his 64th week at No. 1, which is the 13th-best total of all time.
Who moved up the ATP rankings during the spring hard court season?
Jiri Lehecka, Sinner’s opponent in the Miami final, earned a seven-spot ranking improvement since the end of the Australian Open to No. 14 in the world. Arthur Fils, Lehecka’s foe in the Miami semifinals, made a 14-spot jump to No. 28.
Frances Tiafoe is solidly back into the top 20 at No. 18 after three strong events in a row. Tiafoe reached the final at the ATP 500 event in Acapulco in late February. He followed up with a run to the round of 16 at Indian Wells with a quarterfinals appearance in Miami. Tiafoe had fallen to No. 34 early this year.
Flavio Cobolli, who beat Tiafoe in that Acapulco final, is up to a career-high No. 13 on the strength of that title.
Who moved down?
Jack Draper and Jakub Mensik, the 2025 winners at Indian Wells and Miami, respectively, were unable to defend their titles and paid the price in the rankings. Draper is down 12 spots since the start to February to No. 25. Mensik fell 10 spots and is now No. 26.
Some familiar names moving in the wrong direction include Denis Shapovalov (down 13 spots to No. 38), Stefanos Tsitsipas (down 16 to No. 49), and Grigor Dimitrov (down 50 to No. 93).
Who’s about to rise?
Current No. 10 Daniil Medvedev could be back in the top five by the end of the clay court season. Medvedev already has a pair of titles plus an appearance in the Indian Wells final in the early months of 2026. He isn’t defending many ranking points in the next few months. One strong finish at a big event would be enough of a boost to return to the top five.
If 20-year-old American Learner Tien shows even a little improvement on clay, he will be rewarded with a top-16 ranking. Tien is currently No. 22 and not far behind the players just above him in the rankings. He also isn’t defending many points during the clay court season – although that’s because he lost six of his seven spring clay-court matches in 2025.
Who could fall?
No. 5 Lorenzo Musetti, No. 12 Casper Ruud, and No. 21 Tommy Paul are notable players defending a significant chunk of their ranking points during the clay-court season. Musetti and Ruud are strong on clay, but a spring slump for either would result in a swift slide down the rankings.
Paul is defending more than half of his ranking points in the next few months. A severe spring slump would drop him out of the top 50 by June.
28 years ago this happened
This week in 1998, Marcelo Ríos rose to No. 1 in the world after achieving the Sunshine Double at Indian Wells and Miami. Rios became the first player from South America to reach the No. 1 ranking. He was just the 14th player to earn the No. 1 ranking.