The draw for the WTA 1000 Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships is out, and it’s a tough one for Jessica Pegula.
Statistically, Pegula, the No. 5 seed, will face the most difficult path to the title among the top seeds when the 56-player event starts Feb. 16.
Meanwhile, No. 4 seed Jasmine Paolini, the event’s reigning champion, has a favorable path to a repeat title.
Who got the best and worst draws for the Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships?
Pegula’s potential opponents have the best average world ranking among the eight players who received a first-round bye. Pegula will play her first match against either 23rd-ranked Liudmila Samsonova or 25th-ranked Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. If Pegula reaches the third round, a matchup against fast-rising and 11th-seeded Diana Shnaider looms. To claim the title, Pegula potentially must win five consecutive matches against Top 25 opponents.
At the other extreme, Paolini’s potential opponents have the worst average world ranking among the players who received a first-round bye. Paolini will face either 78th-ranked Irina-Camelia Begu or 91st-ranked Eva Lys in her first match. Her next round likely would be against Donna Vekic, who has the worst world ranking among the 16 seeded players.
Looking at the entire field, Magdalena Frech and Linda Noskova got the toughest draws for the Dubai event. Both players could have to beat six consecutive Top 20 opponents to win the tournament. The average world ranking of the players in their toughest possible title path is 7.33.
Statistically, Belina Bencic got the best draw among the event’s unseeded players. Bencic, currently ranked 65th and winner of the WTA 500 Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open earlier this month, gets a first-round matchup against 120th-ranked qualifier Aoi Ito.
If victorious, Bencic’s second-round match would be against Emma Navarro, who has the worst world ranking among the eight players who received a first-round bye.