For a while, it appeared as if Alex de Minaur would have no more trouble with Lorenzo Musetti in the semifinals of the Monte-Carlo Masters than he had with Grigor Dimitrov in the quarters. At one point in the first set, the Australian had reeled off 17 consecutive games at the tournament, going back to the round of 16.
The question was seemingly not whether de Minaur would win but how quickly. He jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first set and eventually took it 6-1. But then something changed to begin set two. Musetti began to hit the angles better and with enough power that even the speedy Aussie could not run down the shots.
The Italian got an early break, and his confidence clearly grew. De Minaur would get the break back, but Musetti still seemed to have the momentum. At 4-all, Musetti got another break and simply needed to hold serve to force a third set. De Minaur made the hold a difficult one, but Musetti got the win and got to play another set.
Lorenzo Musetti will play Carlos Alcaraz in the Monte-Carlo Masters final
Few players move as well as de Minaur. He is the ATP equivalent of Jessica Pegula. Neither player has one shot that they can rely on to get past an opponent, but neither normally beats themselves. They are troublesome to play, but not unbeatable.
This is one reason de Minaur has become a very good player, but is unlikely to ever become great. He doesn't have the power of many others. If his opponent begins to dictate play with force, he can struggle. While the Aussie ranks first in return rating, according to the ATP, he is 59th when serving. He is better at reacting than overpowering.
This was the case against Musetti, who had a good week regardless of whether he had beaten de Minaur. When the new rankings come out next week, he was already assured of at least reaching a career high of 13. With a victory against de Minaur, he would reach No. 11. If he wins the Monte-Carlo Masters, his first appearance and title in a Masters 1000 event, he would get as high as No. 7.
He will have that chance, too. Somehow, after being destroyed in the first set, the Italian did not lose confidence and got a break of de Minaur midway through the third set. He would lose that break advantage. Playing from behind once again and serving at 5-6, the Italian needed a hold to force a tie-break. He was able to do that in a match growing with drama and intensity, and he took the tie-break without committing any unforced errors.
The 23-year-old is learning how to win at the significant events. After a 1-6 6-4 7-6(4) victory against de Minaur, he might be a problem for Carlos Alcaraz in the final.