Do you trust the eye test? Or do you trust the numbers?
At a glance, Novak Djokovic got a tough draw for the BNP Paribas Open, the 96-player ATP Masters 1000 event scheduled to start March 5 in Indian Wells, Calif.
Djokovic’s draw includes a potential clash against Nick Kyrgios in his first match. A date with world No. 3 and reigning BNP Paribas Open champion Carlos Alcaraz looms in the quarterfinals. All of that just to get to the semifinals!
By the numbers, Djokovic actually has a favorable draw at Indian Wells
Statistically, however, Djokovic has the easiest draw among the top seeds at Indian Wells. The average world ranking of Djokovic’s likely opponents is the least impressive of the probable foes that the top players will face. That stat is most affected – some might say skewed – by Djokovic’s second-round matchup after a first-round bye against either a qualifier or Kyrgios, who is the field on a protected ranking despite an official ranking outside the top 1000.
Daniil Medvedev also has a favorable draw. He won’t face any Top 30 players until the Round of 16 at the earliest. He and Casper Ruud landed in the quarter of the draw away from Alcaraz, Djokovic, and top-seeded Alexander Zverev.
Who got the toughest draw? No. 9 seed Alex de Minaur got the worst draw among the top players. If de Minaur gets past his first match against either Lorenzo Sonego or David Goffin, he could face big-serving Hubert Hurkacz, all of that just to get a Round of 16 date against Djokovic.
Statistically, Goffin has the toughest draw in the entire tournament. To win the event, Goffin conceivably would have to beat world No. 37 Sonego in his first match and then topple five top 10 players in the next six rounds.
World No. 83 Rinky Hijikata has the most favorable draw among the unseeded entrants. Hijikata is the favorite in his first-round matchup against No. 98 Alexander Shevchenko. He would then face Brandon Nakashima, who has the worst world ranking among the tournament’s 32 seeds.