Jannik Sinner's recent move gives Carlos Alcaraz an outside chance

Heading into October, the long tennis season is beginning to wind down. There are still some important tournaments to be played on the ATP tour, however, as players fight for ranking status. Currently, Jannik Sinner is well ahead at No. 1 and leads No. 2 Alexander Zverev by more than 4,000 points. But that could all change by the end of the year.

The reason is that the Italian had a good run at the end of 2023 and has a large number of points to defend including the 1,000 points he earned on his way to the ATP Finals final last year where he lost to Novak Djokovic. He also won the China Open and Vienna Open so will have 1,000 points alone to defend from those events.

The issue is that Sinner has decided not to play in Vienna this year so he will drop 500 points and have no chance of making that up. Zverev is just barely ahead of No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz in points but the German is battling pneumonia and has no timeline for his return. Very likely, Alcaraz will overtake Zverev for No. 2 but could have a decent chance at catching Sinner as well.

Jannik Sinner's withdrawal from Vienna might open a door for Carlos Alcaraz

In total, Sinner will drop 2,180 points by the end of the year while Alcaraz will drop only 680 points. Zverev will drop just 760 points. Should Alcaraz or Zverev go on a fantastic run in their final tournaments and Sinner falters then both have a chance to overtake the Italian but only if Sinner is stunningly and unexpectedly bad.

Should Sinner make great runs ahead of the ATP Finals, he probably will end any drama of who finishes the season at No. 1. He will. But with two Masters 1000 events (Paris and Shanghai) and the ATP Finals left, there are as many as 4,000 points left for the taking.

Since Sinner has more points to defend, he is at risk of falling back to No. 2. There is a slim chance - but still a real chance - that Alcaraz and Zverev reach him. Only Alcaraz among the three has finished the year at No. 1 (2022) and is the only player not named Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, or Andy Murray to finish as year-end No. 1 since 2003.

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