The Australian Open doesn't seem to be a conductor of change. On the men's side, since 2006, only five different players have won the major. On the women's side, there has been far more variety, though no less quality, but one player has begun to emerge as the dominant force.
Aryna Sabalenka has been to the final in Melbourne for three straight years, and she has won two of them. She lost last year to Madison Keys, but Keys being a long-term threat to the Belarusian's dominance Down Under was already put to rest. She lost in the fourth round to fellow American Jessica Pegula.
The truth is that those players predicted by many to reach the semifinals, let alone the finals, of the Australian Open in 2026 are still very much in play. Jannik Sinner and Carlos? Absolutely. They are likely on a collision course toward a men's final yet again.
Australian Open 2026 is shaping up almost exactly like what tennis fans expected
Sabalenka is into the semifinals, where she will face perhaps the most surprising player of the tournament to make a deep run. She will face veteran Elina Svitolina, a fabulous player who had never before made the semifinals in Melbourne. She destroyed Coco Gauff 6-1 6-2 in order to take on Sabalenka.
In one of the other quarterfinals matches, Iga Swiatek will take on Elena Rybakina. Neither has won the Aussie Open before, but both have won Grand Slams and competed for others. Their presence is expected.
The other quarterfinals see ascending American Amanda Anisimova, who played in two Grand Slam finals in 2025. She will play Jessica Pegula, a metronome of success if there ever was one.
While Lorenzo Musetti could stun Novak Djokovic in one of the men's quarterfinals, and maybe Ben Shelton does the same against Sinner in the other, both are unlikely to happen. This would mean we would have men's semifinal matches that feature Djokovic, Alcaraz, Sinner, and Alexander Zverev. Zero shocks there.
While the Australian Open might be going the way most expected, that isn't a bad thing. The quality of the tennis left to be played is high-level. Ultimately, while there have been few surprises in Melbourne, tennis fans are ultimately getting the exact matches they wanted.