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French Open: Draw analysis, Federer’s potential path

By Geoff Nichols

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French Open: Draw analysis, Federer’s potential path

The tennis gods have smiled on Roger Federer at this year’s French Open draw as he has avoided the rest of the Big Four until at least the final. Whilst the cliché holds that there is no such things as an easy draw, the world number 2 must be happy with the cards he has been dealt.

Federer has hardly been in the conversation in the title, with most people struggling to look past Novak Djokovic, but the Swiss maestro has now been handed a tasty looking route all the way through to the final. Sure there are tough matches en route, but nobody he won’t go in as favourite against.

Possible Path

Round 1: Qualifier

Round 2: Marcel Granollers

Round 3: Ivo Karlovic [25]

Round 4: Gael Monfils [13]

Quarter Final: Stan Wawinka [8]

Semi Final: Thomas Berdych [4] / Kei Nishikori [5]

Final: Novak Djokovic [1]

Opening against a qualifier tends to be a guaranteed win for Federer, who is remarkably consistent in the early rounds of the majors. Similarly it is hard to imagine Marcel Granollers having the game to trouble Federer, although his consistency could get under the skin of Federer.

Big serving Ivo Karlovic should lie in wait in round three, although given the Croatian’s struggles on clay and in Grand Slams, there is no guarantee he will even make it that far. If he does, Federer’s return of serve is still right up there with the best when he is playing well and there should be no drama.

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Then the fun begins, with Gael Monfils looming ominously in the fourth round. Arguably this is where the draw has been most cruel to Federer, but he would have bitten your hand off for Monfils in the fourth round and then no Djokovic, Nadal or Murray waiting until the final.

Monfils has the hold over Federer on the dirt, winning on the last two occasions. If the match turns physical again then you would have to give the Frenchman the edge. Federer needs to continue his Rome form and play the match on his terms.

Looking as far ahead as the quarter finals, Swiss compatriot Stan Wawrinka could be Federer’s opponent, although the tensions between the two seems to have simmered down very quickly. Kei Nishikori and Thomas Berdych are the potential semi final opponents, match ups we will consider in much greater depth in the coming week.

Next: What can Rafael Nadal achieve on the clay?

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