Wimbledon 2015: Murray v Federer Semi Final Predictions

By Geoff Nichols | Jul 9, 2015

Wimbledon 2015: Murray v Federer Semi Final Predictions

When the Wimbledon draw was made, this was the potential semi final that leapt off the page. Two men who have enjoyed fantastic seasons to this point and who would both consider grass to be where they are at their strongest. With a finely balanced head to head, Murray against Federer seems impossible to call.

Both their paths to this point have been relatively trouble free. A couple of sets dropped here or their have not been enough to derail their collision course. It is a rivalry that at times hasn’t been entirely civil, with two grass court finals shared one apiece being their biggest meetings so far.

Whilst Friday is only a semi final, it’s importance is not lost on anyone. A lot has been said about the pressure on Murray in front of an expectant home crowd, but surely Federer must be feeling a similarly cumbersome weight on his shoulders.

This represents as good a chance as any for him to pick up one final Grand Slam. It was be almost poetic for him to do so, but we all know that sport waits for no man and if Federer doesn’t take his chance, that 18th major may forever elude him.

Where it Will Be Won

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Matches between Murray and Federer have not always been won in the past. On the big stage Murray has faltered against the Swiss opponent, whilst for a period of time Murray got under the skin of Federer, seeming to have his card marked.

Now both men have seen it all before and it means that one will have to go out and win the match. Playing the big points well is never more important than in this match up. Being clinical on break points is a huge area to look out for.

I don’t see Federer’s serve holding up as much as it has done for the previous rounds, although he will have plenty of chances to get his teeth into Murray’s service games. I don’t think he will immediately go free from the shackles on the second serve return, but it will be the first port of call if Plan A isn’t firing.

If Murray serves well I think he is more likely to completely shut out the hopes of Federer. A performance like in the Olympic Final would deem him too good on the day, whereas his 6-0 6-1 loss at the end of 2014 was a case of personal inability more than an inspired Federer.

The other key area other than break points converted that I think will hint at the destination of the match. Federer is eyeing the title and knows that entertaining Murray in a physical battle, whilst still possibly winnable, will make a likely final against Djokovic very difficult.

I think come the end of the match, if most rallies are 9 shots or under, Federer will be the one emerging victorious. Longer rallies will mean Murray’s game plan is working and he is neutralising the weapons Federer brings to the court.

Either way Federer will be introducing serve and volley as well as net play into the encounter. Murray will need to be extremely sharp to deal with the tight volleying that Federer has honed. Again, it is all about playing those big moments well and on the day, either man could execute better.

I think Murray has the edge in knowing that he can go the distance and still challenge in the final. He has been in inspired form recently and whilst Federer is not far from his peak, his vulnerability in these big matches in recent years counts against him.

Murray in five

Next: Wimbledon 2015: Top 5 Upsets in Men's Draw

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