Australian Open 2026: Predicting who will win the men's semifinals

Will it go as expected?
Jannik Sinner plays at the Australian Open
Jannik Sinner plays at the Australian Open | DAVID GRAY/GettyImages

Are tennis fans on another direct course toward another Jannik Sinner versus Carlos Alcaraz major final? The opportunity still exists at the Australian Open. In fact, all four of the semifinalists are likely the ones that most predicted before the tournament.

Novak Djokovic will face Sinner, and while the Serb is 38 years old, he can't stop making at least the semis at majors. He made it to the next-to-last stage at every Grand Slam event in 2025, after all.

But can he overcome potentially both Alcaraz and Sinner for his 11th Australian Open title? If he does, he might simply retire then and there. He will have done what no one else can currently do: Take a major title from the Spaniard and the Italian.

Predicting the winners of the men's 2026 Australian Open semifinals

Carlos Alcaraz versus Alexander Zverev

No two players are more driven to win the 2026 Australian Open than Alcaraz and Zverev, but for completely different reasons. The Spaniard wants to win in Melbourne for the first time, proving he can do so, after taking two titles in each of the other three majors. The German simply wants to show he can win any Grand Slam.

Zverev is making a claim for himself that no player wants to make. That is that he is the best player to never win a major. He has the skill set and is still only 28, but he has faded mentally in the bigger moments many times. He still has time left to win more than one Grand Slam.

Can he defeat a driven Alcaraz? He's done so before, beating the Spaniard in the 2024 quarterfinals. He won't in 2026, though. Alcaraz is playing too well and will beat Zverev in four sets.

Jannik Sinner versus Novak Djokovic

Is Sinner the new Djokovic? The Serb has won a record 10 titles at the Australian Open, and he has had a relatively easy time in 2026. He might have lost his quarterfinal to Lorenzo Musetti, but Musetti retired with an injury early in the third set after taking the first two sets.

Before that, Djokovic had a walkover against Jakub Mensik. No player is going to be better rested than Novak Djokovic entering the semifinals in Melbourne.

But that rest might do little good if Sinner plays at near his peak form. At this stage of their careers, the 24-year-old Italian is faster and a bigger hitter from both wings than the 24-time Grand Slam champion. Djokovic will steal a set from Sinner, but the Italian will move on to, of course, play Carlos Alcaraz in another major final in an attempt to win his third-straight title in Melbourne.

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