Put bluntly, everyone still in the field for the ATP 1000 National Bank Open this coming week in Toronto got a better-than-expected draw.
Four of the top six players and a dozen of the top 45 in the PIF ATP Rankings are not playing the first Masters event of the summer hard court season for various reasons. Those absences resulted in outcomes like a top-two seed for Taylor Fritz, a top-four seed for Ben Shelton, players ranked outside the top 40 getting seeds and first-round byes, and similar effects.
So, everyone got a good draw, but Lorenzo Musetti got the best.
Musetti, who is currently No. 7 in the world rankings, is the No. 3 seed for Toronto due to the absences of Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Jack Draper, and Novak Djokovic. Musetti also has, statistically, the easiest draw in the 96-player field, based on the average world ranking of likely opponents.
Who got the easiest and toughest draws for the ATP Canadian Open?
After a first-round bye, Musetti will face No. 86 Juncheng Shang or a qualifier. He most likely would face solid-but-not-scary opponents like Alex Michelson and Tomas Machac in the following rounds. He wouldn’t face a top 10 opponent until the semifinals.
The favorable draw comes at a fortuitous time for Musetti, who has struggled to regain top form since retiring from his French Open semifinal match against Carlos Alcaraz due to injury. Musetti has dropped both of his tour-level matches since Paris.
Toughest draw for a top seed
Daniil Medvedev got the worst draw among the top players. Medvedev has fallen to No. 14 in the world but is the No. 10 seed for this event. He likely will face No. 46 Luciano Darderi in his first match. Darderi missed getting a seed by two spots in the rankings. His likely opponent in the round of 32 would be Alexei Popyrin, the event’s reigning champion.
Toughest draw overall
Pity the poor qualifier who winds up in the spot in the draw against Darderi. That player will face, statistically, the worst draw of any player in the field, based on the average world ranking of likely opponents.
Best opportunity for an unseeded player
Could this event be João Fonseca’s big breakthrough? Fonseca, just 18 years old, is already No. 47 in the world, and could climb higher after this week. He has a manageable path to the round of 32. He drew a first-round match against a qualifier and a second-round match against Matteo Arnaldi, the 32nd and last of the tournament’s seeds.
A matchup against top-seed Alexander Zverev looms in the round of 32, but if Fonseca can pull the upset, he’d clear his own path for a long stay in Toronto.