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Matteo Arnaldi's latest shocker may have decided the French Open

An Italian conclave?
Matteo Arnaldi reacts after missing a point
Matteo Arnaldi reacts after missing a point | David Kirouac-Imagn Images

One might rightly wonder if Matteo Arnaldi would have withdrawn from any other Grand Slam semifinal had he not been playing a fellow Italian? A Paris conclave amongst players from the Mediterranean boot would not seemingly be likely, but the French Open has now changed nonetheless.

Arnaldi's withdrawal resulted in a walkover for Flavio Cobolli, a higher-ranked player with a previous victory against the player he will face in the Roland Garros final, Alexander Zverev. Would Arnaldi have pulled out of the tournament had he been scheduled to face Zverev instead of Cobolli? Tennis fans will never know.

What we do know is that Cobolli, who has moved up to ATP No. 10 in the live rankings, will now have three days' rest to face the No. 2-ranked German at the end of what has been an extremely physically taxing French Open. The matches have run long, and Arnaldi has spent by far the most time on court.

Matteo Arnaldi's withdrawal could make an easier French Open final for Flavio Cobolli as he faces Alexander Zverev

He withdrew due to a "viral illness," which must be a horrid feeling for a player attempting to reach the first major final of his career. Previous to Roland Garros, Arnaldi had never made it past the fourth round at any Grand Slam. That makes his withdrawal, even while sick, all the more odd.

Cobolli will now be as fresh as possible entering the final against Zverev, who is one of the fittest players on the ATP tour but has spent almost 10 hours on the court in Paris. Both Cobolli and Zverev are in top form, but conditioning could come into play in the final.

The German leads the head-to-head against the Italian 3-1, but notably, Cobolli did defeat Zverev on clay earlier in 2026 in Munich, Germany, the home event for Alexander Zverev. As the German would seemingly have extra motivation to win the event for a fourth time, which would be a new record, and Cobolli defeated him there is impressive.

The fact also means that the Italian has a real chance of stopping Zverev from winning the first major of his career. And now that he will have three days' rest instead of just one, Flavio Cobolli could be in a better position to win his own career-first major.

What tennis fans should expect is long rallies where Zverev uses a metronomic and elite serve, coupled with one of the best backhands in men's tennis, to try to overcome Cobolli, a player who has won two of his three career titles on clay. The final should be epic, and Flavio Cobolli might have the slight advantage in fitness.

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