How Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula made the US Open final and who will win

It has been a stellar US Open for the Americans.

The United States had two semifinalists in both the men's and women's singles draws.

With Jessica Pegula winning in her maiden major semifinal appearance, there will be an American finalist in both singles draws.

A Summer of Success

Jessica Pegula and Aryna Sabalenka entered the US Open as the two best players of the summer hard court swing. 2024 had not been a great year for the consistent Pegula, with injuries and a coaching change seemingly derailing her progress from 2023. However, Pegula turned her season around in August by defending her National Bank Open title.

Pegula was the first female player to defend that title since 2000. Pegula followed up that success by making it to the final of the 1000 event in Cincinnati. Her opponent there? Aryna Sabalenka.

Former world number one Sabalenka opened her 2024 campaign by defending her Australian Open crown. Criticized in the past for being inconsistent, Sabalenka has continued to be a force on every surface. Sabalenka has now advanced to at least the semifinals of seven of the last eight majors she has played.

That is a remarkable statistic for a player who plays such a high octane brand of tennis. After skipping Wimbledon and the Olympics, Sabalenka has now won 11 matches in a row, only dropping one set along the way.

Making the case for Pegula

Pegula had a career-defining win over world number one Iga Swiatek in the US Open quarterfinals. Pegula had never advanced past the quarterfinals of a singles major, having lost at that stage on six previous occasions. Pegula followed that win with a stunning comeback over Karolina Muchova in the semifinals.

Pegula has thrived under the lights with the American crowd, and seems to have added a bit more firepower alongside her trademark steadiness. Pegula will undoubtedly be supported by a raucous New York crowd and could use that support to snag a maiden singles major.

Making the case for Sabalenka

At her best, Sabalenka is unplayable. She has the ability to dominate points from the first strike, and if she is serving her best, there are very few players who can even compete with her. What has been most impressive about Sabalenka in the last few years is how much she has improved her B-level or C-level game.

Sabalenka has learned how to win when her serve goes awry or she isn't fully firing from the ground. Her B-level game is now good enough to beat almost every other player.

Final Prediction

This has been a breakthrough tournament for Jessica Pegula, who undoubtedly will use this experience to make deep runs again at majors. However, Sabalenka has been a level above the field during this fortnight. Last year. Sabalenka was undone by Coco Gauff's defense and fighting spirit. Sabalenka has learned from that loss and will overcome Pegula and the crowd in two tight sets.

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