Wimbledon 2024: Preview and predictions for the grass-court major

Last year saw Marketa Vondrousova shockingly win at Wimbledon but will there be surprise winners in 2024 on either the women's or men's side?
Marketa Vondrousova at Wimbledon
Marketa Vondrousova at Wimbledon / Robert Prange/GettyImages

In 2023, Marketa Vondrousova became the first unseeded woman to ever win a title at Wimbledon. While that is a fact, it is also a little misleading. Vondrousova was a very good player who had worked through some injury concerns and her game was perfect for grass courts. She normally would have been seeded, and she is currently ranked No. 6 on the WTA tour.

On the men's side, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic played in one of the best men's finals ever with the Spaniard coming through in the fifth set. At the time, this appeared to set Alcaraz up to take over men's tennis for the long term. He was the new king and Djokovic would fade away. That did not happen as the Serb did not lose another tournament he entered for the rest of the year.

Heading into 2024, however, Vondrousova's availability is in question. She recently slipped while playing a match at the Berlin Open and had to retire. She had hurt her hip and was not able to move around as well as she needed to to keep playing. Alcaraz won the French Open at the beginning of June and must be considered a favorite for Wimbledon.

Predictions for who will win Wimbledon 2024

The tournament will run from July 1 through 14. The women's final will be played on July 13, while the men's final will follow the next day. Here are a couple of guesses on who wins this year.

WTA prediction

Heading into last year's final, Ons Jabeur was the favorite over Vondrousova. Jabeur is a well-liked player who is a fan favorite, but she had failed in previous Grand Slam finals. Wimbledon 2023 seemed to be her time, but instead, she was overpowered by Vondrousova. The last title Jabeur won was the Ningbo Open in September. While it would be nice if she won the grass-court major, she is not going to in 2024.

Neither will Iga Swiatek. Swiatek is the clear No. 1 on the WTA tour and will probably remain so for years to come, but grass is not her best surface. Her best run at Wimbledon was making the quarterfinals in 2023. She is a great player, but not a fantastic grass-court player.

Elena Rybakina won the event in 2022 and has a career winning percentage of .730 on grass. She has been seemingly struggling with illness over the last couple of months, and she withdrew from the Berlin Open last week because she was sick. This might only mean she is better rested for Wimbledon. She will win the event once again.

ATP prediction

How men's tennis has changed since last year's Wimbledon. Instead of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner is the top-ranked player and has won more tournaments than Alcaraz since last July. Novak Djokovic ended last year at No. 1 again but he has not made a final in 2024, and he recently had surgery for a torn meniscus. There is a chance he plays at the grass-court Grand Slam, and he would be seeded second, but his fitness is in question.

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Unlike clay, grass courts do not truly have specialists. The players simply do not play the surface enough. Many times, a player who does well on hard courts will also do well on grass. Alcaraz and Djokovic have at least proven they can win a major on any surface. The Spaniard also became the first person not among the Big 4 to win Wimbledon since 2002.

The threats to dethrone Alcaraz could come from Alexander Zverev and Daniil Medvedev but neither is particularly good on grass courts compared to clay (for Zverev) and hard courts (for Medvedev). This seems to lead to a battle between Alcaraz, Sinner, and Djokovic for the 2024 crown and the guess here is that Alcaraz will win for the second-straight year.

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