Opportunities abound for some top United States players when the ATP 1000 Mutua Madrid Open starts on April 23.
Taylor Fritz, the top-ranked American and the No. 3 seed in the 96-player field, has the most favorable draw among the event’s top players, based on the average world ranking of likely opponents. After a first-round bye, Fritz’s most likely opponents are No. 59 Camilo Ugo Carabelli, followed by No. 27 seed Hubert Hurkacz. No. 14 seed Casper Ruud, who has slumped of late, would be the probable opponent in the round of 16.
No. 23 seed and fellow American Sebastian Korda got the easiest draw in the whole field, based on likely opponents’ average ranking. After a first-round bye, Korda is guaranteed to face a player ranked outside the top 150 in the second round. He’d probably face Ruud in the round of 32.
Who else got good and bad draws for the Mutua Madrid Open?
No. 5 seed Jack Draper and No. 8 seed Holger Rune got the toughest draws among the top players. Draper, who already has an ATP 1000 title to his credit this year, probably will play No. 34 Taillon Griekspoor – the top-ranked unseeded player – in his first match.
Rune got no favors in his draw despite winning the title in Barcelona last week. Rune likely will face Flavio Cobolli in his first match. Rune’s previous four opponents might all rank in the top 10.
No. 44 Matteo Arnaldi has, statistically, the best opportunity among the unseeded players. Arnaldi will face a qualifier in the first round. He would have to face No. 4 seed Novak Djokovic in Round 2, but Djokovic isn’t always in top form early in the clay-court season.
If Arnaldi can get past Djokovic, the next two opponents could be No. 32 Sebastian Baez and No. 16 Frances Tiafoe – in other words, the worst-ranked of the possible seeds for the round of 32 and round of 16 matches.
No. 85 Mariano Navone has, statistically, the worst draw in the field. Navone opens against big-serving No. 37 seed Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Any future opponents likely would be ranked in the world’s top 23.