Tennis fans can see what is almost certain to happen at Indian Wells 2026. The final will probably be Jannik Sinner versus Carlos Alcaraz, as almost all tournaments finish that the two enter together. Nothing is wrong with that, of course. They are the two best players on the ATP tour.
The great thing about the semifinals at Indian Wells this year is that three of the four players have had relative success at the tournament. Daniil Medvedev hasn't won the event, but has reached the finals twice. Alcaraz won in 2023 and 2024. Sinner reached the semis in the same years (and missed 2025 due to being suspended).
Only Alexander Zverev hasn't yet made at least the semifinals. Maybe he is due this year. The issue is who he is playing.
Guessing who will win the men's semifinals at Indian Wells 2026
Carlos Alcaraz versus Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev would seemingly be a huge underdog against the Spaniard, and maybe he is, but he is not without success against Alcaraz. The ATP No. 1 holds a 6-2 advantage, but the Russian did get one of his victories on an outdoor hard court, his best surface.
Still, Alcaraz hasn't lost yet this year, winning the Australian Open for the first time and then winning in Doha. He is beatable, but he either has to be playing poorly, which he obviously doesn't do often, or the other player has to be in perfect form. Even at Medvedev's best, he might not be able to defeat Alcaraz right now. The Spaniard wins in two sets.
Jannik Sinner verus Alexander Zverev
Zverev has to be thankful this match is at least not on an indoor hard court, where the Italian is nearly unbeatable, and that even includes against Alcaraz. The rivalry has lately turned one-sided, however, as Sinner has defeated Zverev in their last five meetings dating back to the US Open in 2023.
The Italian appears firmly behind Alcaraz at this point when facing one another (unless, again, it's on an indoor hard court), but he is still easily the second-best player on the ATP tour. Zverev is likely the third-best when he is playing well, and both players have been in form at Indian Wells.
No matter if either player wins the tournament, they will each keep their current ranking. Zverev will stay No. 4 (No. 3 Novak Djokovic lost earlier in the event), and Sinner will stay No. 2 (well behind Alcaraz). As far as this match, Jannik Sinner should win in three sets.